Fiinci 



Expanded use of natural gas is an attractive short-term 

 alternative to oil in some applications, and prospects for 

 increased domestic production in the lower 48 States 

 during the next decade are considered reasonable (Section 

 II-E). Those supplies could be augmented by trans- 

 oceanic imports of liquefied natural gas, which is, 

 however, highly flammable and could thus constitute a 

 hazard at storage sites, processing facilities, and ports. In 

 1980, the Department of Transportation issued proposed 

 regulations on the design, siting, construction, operation, 

 and maintenance of liquefied natural gas pipelines and 

 facilities (ASTR-III). and research aimed at facilitating 

 transportation safety will be a continuing priority for the 

 next 5 years (ENERGY). 



IMPROVING TRANSPORTATION PERFORMANCE 



Given projected needs for increased transportation capac- 

 ity, coupled with the major constraints of projected de- 

 creased availability of conventional energy sources 

 (Section II-E). major changes will be needed in the 

 characteristics of transportation vehicles. In the short 

 term, there will be a need to continue to increase the 

 efficiency of energy use. In the long term, engines for 

 transport vehicles will have to be redesigned to accept the 

 variety of fuels that will make up future energy sources, 

 and they may have to be able to function on mixes of fuel 

 (NRC-16). Progress has already been made toward the 

 former goal and will surely continue during the next 5 

 years. 



INCREASING ENERGY EFFICIENCY 



Transportation accounts for about 25 percent of national 

 energy consumption and about 50 percent of petroleum 

 fuel use. Thus, the most immediate requirement for im- 

 provement in all modes of transportation is increasing 

 energy efficiency. By 1985, the greatest energy efficiency 

 improvements are expected to occur in automobiles and 

 commercial aircraft. New technologies that reduce vehi- 

 cle weight — for example, substituting lightweight com- 

 posite materials for heavier alloys (NS) — and that im- 

 prove engine efficiencies can lead to a doubling of the 

 energy efficiencies of those modes over 1975 perform- 

 ance. In addition, new vehicle designs can greatly aid fuel 

 efficiency (NRC-16; NS). Beyond 1985, various options 

 are possible. For example, the potential exists for develop- 

 ment and widespread use of a two-passenger automobile, 

 which, on an energy per passenger-mile basis, can meet or 

 exceed the efficiencies of either bus or rail passenger 

 transport. Additionally, emerging new technologies are 

 expected to increase the fuel efficiency of aircraft — such 

 as advanced turbo prop engines and new technologies for 

 laminar flow control (NRC-16). 



Conventional gasoline and diesel engines are expected 

 to be improved in efficiency beyond 1985, but. in addi- 



tional Area Problems. Opportunities, ami Constraints 71 



tion, there is extensive research directed toward the com- 

 mercial development of alternatives to the conventional 

 internal combustion engine (NRC-16). For example, both 

 gas turbine and Stirling engines are receiving emphasis, 

 and success in those efforts could lead to a significant 

 increase in fuel efficiency over that of the best projected 

 1984 internal combustion engine (ENERGY). The sys- 

 tems might be available during the 1990s; it should be 

 emphasized, however, that full-scale demonstration of 

 automobiles with the new types of engines has not yet 

 occurred, and that the capitalization costs required to 

 mass produce such new cars would be enormous 

 (NRC-16). 



PREPARING FOR FUEL SUBSTITUTION 



Of comparable importance to improved energy efficiency 

 during the next 5 years are technologies for the production 

 of new nonpetroleum fuels. The development of marketa- 

 ble technologies for extracting gasoline and diesel fuel 

 from oil shale and for producing them as synthetic liquids 

 from coal is well under way. Technology to produce 

 methanol from coal for use in internal combustion engines 

 is in a similar state. Liquid fuels from biomass are another 

 possible, although more limited, resource. However, 

 while those resources promise to provide the United 

 States with transportation fuels for years to come, they 

 will have little impact on our total needs for at least 

 another decade (Section II-E). 



Research has also been initiated on new batteries that 

 would greatly increase the energy density of present lead- 

 acid batteries. The latter provide very limited pert'orm- 

 ance and are very expensive, and development of im- 

 proved storage devices would provide the potential to use 

 electrical energy generated from nonpetroleum sources as 

 a major transportation energy supply (NRC-16). Further- 

 more, the possibility exists that buses and trucks, as well 

 as automobiles, could be supplied energy by electricity. 

 One possibility currently being explored is the transfer of 

 power through magnetic flux from cables laid in highway 

 pavement and requiring no contact between the roadway 

 and the vehicle. Prototype experiments with that technol- 

 ogy are now in progress (TRANS). As the price of pe- 

 troleum continues to rise, such alternatives as those, and 

 others to be developed, may be able to fill a significant 

 portion of the fuel requirements for transportation and, 

 thereby, relieve some of the pressures on the American 

 social and economic systems. However, few if any of the 

 developments are likely to reach fruition until well beyond 

 1985, although substantial progress should be evident by 

 then. 



IMPROVING TRANSPORTATION SAFETY 



The current U.S. transportation network is enormous. 

 Americans own more than 100 million automobiles that 

 travel over nearly 4 million miles of roads. Scheduled 



