12 THE FIVE-YEAR OUTLOOK 



ing, together with sophisticated research instruments now 

 available, should result in a new era of drug discovery and 

 development — one in which drugs are targeted to inter- 

 rupt a specific disease process rather than simply treating 

 signs and symptoms. Focused research and development 

 of that nature should help to mitigate the effects of Federal 

 regulations that, by greatly increasing the number and 

 types of tests required before a new drug can be marketed, 

 have led to rapidly escalating costs for research, develop- 

 ment, and commercialization (NRC-14). 



Devising ways to improve the linkages between the 

 industrial R&D enterprise and other components of the 

 U.S. research system — particularly the universities — is 

 one of the issues associated with industrial R&D activities 

 that is likely to receive prominence during the next 5 

 years. Another critical issue is the role of the Federal 

 Government in stimulating (or inhibiting) industrial 

 R&D. Those issues are related to the problems of innova- 

 tion, productivity, and economic growth and are treated in 

 more detail in the next section. 



REFERENCES 



1. The data that follow are from the National Science Foundation, 

 Science Indicators 1980 ISISO). Washington. DC.: U.S. Government 

 Pnnting Office. 1981. 



2. Vannevar Bush. Science — the Endless Frontier. First issued July 5. 

 1945. Reprinted May 1980. Washington, D.C.: National Science Foun- 

 dation, 1980. 



3. Categories of Scientific Research. Papers presented at a National 

 Science Foundation Seminar December H, 1979. NSF 80-28. Wash- 

 ington. D.C.: National Science Foundation, 1980. 



4. Richard C. Atkinson. "Rights and Responsibilities in Scientitic 

 Research," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. (December 1978), pp. 

 10-14 



5. Statements and data regarding science and engineering personnel 

 are based on National Science Foundation and U.S. Department of 

 Education. Science and Engineering Education for the 1980s and 

 Beyond. Washington. D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1980. 



6. Ibid., p. 55. 



7. National Science Foundation. National Patterns of Science and 

 Technology Resources 1981 . Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Print- 

 ing Office, 1981. 



8. W.H. Shapley, A.H. Teich, G.J. Breslow, andC V. Kidd Research 

 and Development: AAAS Report V. Washington, D.C.: American Asso- 

 ciation for the Advancement of Science, 1980 



9. National Science Foundation and U.S. Department of Education, 

 op. cit. (Ref. 5). 



10. Ibid. 



11. Ibid. See 3ho Industries and the Universities. Washington, D.C.: 

 National Commission on Research, 1980. 



12.r/i(' Scientific Instrumentation Needs of Research Univer- 

 sities. Washmglon. DC: Amencan Association of Universities, 1980. 



13. Lewis M. Branscomb. "Research Equipment .Acquisition," Sci- 

 ence. Vol. 212 (May 22, 1981). p. 877. 



14. National Commission on Research. Research Personnel: An Essay 

 on Policy. Washington. D.C.: National Commission on Research. 1980. 



15. Atkinson, op. cit. (Ref. 4). See also Edward D David. "Industrial 

 Research in America: Challenge of New Synthesis." Science. Vol. 209 

 (July 4, 19801, pp. 133-139. 



16. Ibid. 



17. Ibid. 



C. Contributions of Science and Technology to Industrial 

 Innovation, Productivity, and Economic Growth 



The President's February 5, 1981, address to the Nation on 

 the economy emphasized the goals of fostering industrial 

 innovation, increasing productivity, and stimulating eco- 

 nomic growth to increase the quality of life of all Amer- 

 icans and to maintain our national security.' Figure 6, 

 which shows that the overall growth of productivity in 

 manufacturing industries in the United States has lagged 

 behind that of several other industrialized nations, 

 provides ample grounds for the President's concern. 



A wide variety of factors influence innovation, produc- 

 tivity, and economic progress, including inllation. energy 

 prices, and labor costs (NRC-Obs.). Research and de- 

 velopment activities are, however, of particular relevance 

 to this report since they underlie the innovation process 



and provide many of the tools needed for increasing 

 productivity. 



There is considerable evidence pointing to the histor- 

 ical and current relationship between American science 

 and technology and economic growth. The Committee on 

 Economic Development (CED) has, for example, ex- 

 pressed the view that "technological progress is perhaps 

 the most important source of future economic vitality and 

 social progress for the United States".- That perspective is 

 also evident throughout the contributions that appear in 

 the accompanying Source Volumes. Studies cited in Sci- 

 ence lndicators-197H show that, between 1948 and 1969. 

 34 percent of measurable U.S. economic growth derived 

 from advances in knowledge and that industries with high 



