dent requires that Federal regulations of hazardous 

 technologies be justified by weighing the costs and bene- 

 fits of the technologies themselves and of the proposed 

 regulations. Estimating levels of possible damage from a 

 particular pollutant or contaminant can be greatly facili- 

 tated by a detailed understanding of fundamental physi- 

 cal, chemical, biological, and physiological processes, a 

 fact arguing in favor of wide-ranging, sustained basic 

 research (pp. 27-28). 



Additionally, a good deal of attention is likely to be 

 directed to the uses and limitations of formal risk assess- 

 ment and cost-benefit analyses and other analytical tools 

 for assessing risks and for weighing risks, costs, and 

 benefits. A particular need is to expand these meth- 

 odologies to permit comparison of the costs, risks, and 

 benefits associated with entire alternative classes of prod- 

 ucts or processes — for example, comparison of large- 

 scale coal and nuclear fission systems (pp. 28-29). 



Functional Area Problems, Opportunities, and Constraints 



NATIONAL SECURITY 



Federal outlays for defense-related R&D are expected to 

 continue to increase. The objectives are to develop specif- 

 ic defense-related technologies and to maintain long- 

 range private sector capabilities in such basic science and 

 engineering fields as electronics and materials with the 

 hope that they will lead to long-term payoffs in national 

 defense applications (pp. 31-32). 



ELECTRONIC COMPONENTS AND APPLICATIONS 



The Very High Speed Integrated Circuits Program of the 

 Department of Defense (DOD) aims to accelerate de- 

 velopment of electronic microcircuit technology and en- 

 sure the industrial capability for developing the elec- 

 tronics required in the next generation of computers, 

 missiles, radar, and intelligence processing centers. The 

 Defense Department's Ultrasmall Electronics Research 

 Program supports research aimed at revolutionary 

 changes in microelectronics in the next 10 to 20 years that 

 will depend on entirely new concepts and materials (pp. 

 32-33). 



Research in artificial intelligence is scheduled to inten- 

 sify during the next 5 years, the objective being to estab- 

 lish the basis for intelligent military systems that will 

 provide new capabilities and ease future personnel needs. 

 The use of robots in Department of Defense systems 

 manufacturing is likely to increase along with their use in 

 industry. For the longer term, robots will be developed for 

 field use to assist combat and support forces (p. 34). 



Strategic command, control, and communications sys- 

 tems must be able to survive in combat and be highly 

 dependable as the link between the command structure, 

 strategic reserve forces, and troops in the field. Advanced 

 packet communications technologies and a powerful ex- 

 perimental internetwork are being developed to provide 



local, regional, and long-band computer communications 

 via ground radio transmission, terrestrial circuits, and 

 satellites. The technology for securing classified informa- 

 tion processed or stored in computer and communication 

 networks is also being developed (p. 34). 



MATERIALS SCIENCE ' 



The availability of stronger, lighter, and more heat-resist- 

 ant materials is critical to the future development of mili- 

 tary aircraft, spacecraft, and ballistic missiles, as well as 

 to many parts of the civilian economy. Research and 

 development that can lead to wider uses of carbon-carbon 

 composite and metal-matrix composite materials show 

 considerable promise. Both of those advanced types of 

 materials have the potential to replace presently used 

 alloys based on strategic metals that the United States 

 must import. Research and development in rapid solid- 

 ification technology will be vigorously pursued during the 

 next 5 years, with the objective of producing very high 

 quality starting materials for new families of aluminum 

 and titanium alloys and superalloys (pp. 34—35). 



AERONAUTICS RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT 



The integration of advanced electronics and materials 

 technologies is leading to significant improvements in the 

 combat capability of tactical aircraft. New control con- 

 cepts also provide capabilities to increase the survivability 

 of air-to-ground weapons against ground defenses. A ma- 

 jor effort is being made in DOD's advanced turbine engine 

 gas generator program to increase structural testing of 

 promising new turbine engine concepts to provide a base 

 for better implementation of advanced technologies. That 

 effort derives from the need to decrease the cost of propul- 

 sion systems by placing greater emphasis on durability 

 and reliability during the research, development, and 

 initial testing stages (pp. 35-36). 



xiv 



