6 THE FIVE-YEAR OUTLOOK 



knowledge base was the most novel and far reaching 

 feature of Vannevar Bush's 1945 classic. Science — The 

 Endless Frontier.- Despite the urgent need for fiscal re- 

 straint, the President's March 1981 budget proposals in- 

 cluded provisions for continued growth in real dollars in 

 Federal support for basic research. Since research of that 

 type most often cannot be justified in terms of foreseeable 

 applications — the benefits to be derived from enhancing 

 the knowledge base often are not immediately derived or 

 even obvious — support levels cannot be determined by 

 quantitative criteria such as returns on investments. 

 Rather, the Federal Government supports research in that 

 category on the grounds that the costs for carrying out 

 such research, particularly on the cutting edges in most 

 fields, are greater than can be borne by the research 

 institutions (frequently universities) and that there is a 

 national need to maintain and promote the development of 

 the knowledge base. Currently, 66 percent of Federal 

 support for basic research goes to universities, including 

 university-administered Federally Funded Research and 

 Development Centers (FFRDCs); 20 percent to national 

 laboratories: 8 percent to other nonprofit institutions; and 

 6 percent to private industry {SI-80.). 



Although there is a general consensus about both the 

 legitimacy and the desirability of Federal investments to 

 maintain and replenish the knowledge base, debates are 

 likely to continue about how to delineate research ac- 

 tivities in this category from research activities that are 

 meant to underlie the development of a marketable prod- 

 uct, and, therefore, are the responsibility of the private 

 sector Many attempts have been made to identify a unique 

 set of categories to classify all types of research in science 

 and engineering.' The basic research/applied research 

 categories are the most familiar, although such other dis- 

 tinctions as long-term/short-term or directed/nondirected 

 are also employed. Recognition is growing that while 

 distinctions such as those are useful for some purposes, it 

 is probably not possible to define a unique set of categories 

 to classify all types of research activity that would be 

 useful for every purpose for which some categorization 

 might be needed. Indeed, overemphasizing the basic re- 

 search/applied research classifications may suggest that 

 those activities are in some ways antithetical, and thus 

 obscure the essential fact that research spans a broad 

 continuum. But, there is broad agreement that there exists 

 a type of activity characterized by its focus on the develop- 

 ment of knowledge, tools, and skills; by the gener- 

 alizability of its results; and by uncertainty in the length of 

 time likely to elapse before those results are translated into 

 tangible technological developments. That type of ac- 

 tivity is referred to as basic research or as basic science 

 and engineering throughout this report. 



Basic research is performed in all scientific and, it 

 should be emphasized, all engineering disciplines as well. 

 Indeed, one interesting trend over the past 3 or 4 years is a 

 growing appreciation on the part of scientists that a great 



deal of research in engineering is, by virtue of its focus on 

 knowledge, tools, and skills, and by virtue of the broad 

 generalizability of its results, fully as fundamental or 

 basic as what has traditionally been regarded as basic 

 research in the mathematical, physical, and biological 

 sciences. 



Since research in science and engineering spans a broad 

 range of activities, it is almost never possible to draw a 

 precise line between investments intended to maintain and 

 replenish the knowledge base and those aimed at solving 

 immediate and identifiable problems. In an increasing 

 number of areas, each may feed into the other. Research 

 narrowly aimed at a specific technological development 

 may turn up basic questions worth pursuing for their 

 intrinsic conceptual importance apart from applications. 

 At the same time, basic research may open up technologi- 

 cal opportunities that convert a seemingly exotic intellec- 

 tual puzzle into a challenging development project. 



Moreover, research undertaken to improve and refine 

 understanding in one particular area often has dramatic 

 consequences elsewhere. For example, while the original 

 motivation for studying recombinant DNA and other cell 

 fusion techniques was a better understanding of the nature 

 of genetic replication and protein synthetic processes, the 

 findings from those research activities have spawned not 

 only new technologies but whole new industries as well 

 (AAAS^; HEALTH). 



Lasers were originally developed as tools for basic 

 research in physics. However, laser technology has dra- 

 matically broadened the capabilities for research in chem- 

 istry, and biology as well, and is of great importance in 

 national defense and communications. Lasers are also 

 being used increasingly for military, medical, and indus- 

 trial applications (NS; GST; ASTR-IU). 



Fundamental research also underlies the development 

 of a wide range of engineering capabilities. The phe- 

 nomenon of turbulent flow, for example, is associated 

 with bodies moving through a viscous medium, as well as 

 with fluids moving through pipes, pumps, turbines, and 

 heat exchangers. Designers of a broad range of equipment 

 want to ensure a smooth flow because once the flow 

 separates from hulls, airfoils, or ducts, drag or resistance 

 rises abruptly, and the efficiency of the system decays 

 sharply. Recent research suggests that the onset of tur- 

 bulence may actually exhibit a pulsating structure or re- 

 petitive pattern and that it may prove more tractable to 

 mathematical analysis than anyone had thought. If this 

 can be verified, it will have a great impact on all sorts of 

 problems — not simply in the design of aircraft and ships, 

 but in the design of efficient mixing and heat exchange 

 systems like rocket engine combustors and steam 

 condensers. 



These examples suggest the difficulty in making sup- 

 port allocation decisions on the basis of the eventual 

 utility of research results. A somewhat different type of 

 suggested criterion for allocating research support among 



