Generic Policy Issues 7 



different kinds of scientific and technological activities 

 emerged during the 1970s. According to this criterion, 

 research support should be directed not just to the solution 

 of specific short-term problems or to increasing the 

 knowledge base, but, more broadly, to the attainment of 

 long-term social goals. It has, for example, been sug- 

 gested that more research in biomedical fields should be 

 directed toward the health care needs of underserved and 

 disadvantaged populations both in this country and abroad 

 (Section II-D). Application of this type of criterion en- 

 counters the same problems that arise in trying to target 

 research to specific developmental ends. In addition, it 

 encounters the formidable obstacle of trying to link re- 

 search and development, which may themselves be car- 

 ried out in different institutions, with an external social 

 and economic delivery system (in the example cited, the 

 health care system) that is driven by a very different set of 

 imperatives than the research system. The important 

 point, again, is that basic research, by its very nature, is 

 not goal-specific; its utility or potential applications usu- 

 ally cannot be predicted. What may be needed is a mecha- 

 nism by which recognition of the practical implications of 

 basic research advances can be facilitated as those ad- 

 vances occur. 



The desirability of applying a final, related, and largely 

 negative criterion to the determination of research direc- 

 tions was also debated during the 1970s. Application of 

 this criterion would place limits on research whose results 

 could conceivably lead to consequences that might entail 

 risks to individuals and society. The most celebrated 

 instance of research in that category is recombinant DNA 

 research ( AAAS^). The heart of the recombinant DNA 

 debate was not whether scientists and engineers should be 

 exempt from regulations affecting the use of substances 

 known to be or to have a good chance of being hazardous, 

 though there v/ere debates about how such regulations 

 ought to be drawn up. Rather, the central issue was 

 whether the search for knowledge can or should be regu- 

 lated on the grounds that knowledge itself cou\d ultimately 

 prove to be dangerous.^ 



The extension of Federal regulatory authority in the 

 health, safety, and environmental areas during the 

 1970s — as well as proposals for even greater extensions of 

 its authority — may have derived in part from the erosion 

 of public confidence in the inevitable good to be derived 

 from science and technology that began to become evi- 

 dent in some quarters in the late 1960s (AAAS-1), partly 

 as a result of the rising public sensitivity to environmental 

 damage that could emerge from the application of modem 

 technology. By now, there is agreement that at least some 

 types of regulations are counterproductive. However, 

 there is less agreement on what those counterproductive 

 regulations are and how they should be enforced, or on 

 how to achieve their desired, beneficial effects without 

 doing serious damage to the science and technology enter- 

 prise itself (See also Sections C and E). That set of issues 



will need continued consideration to provide for an appro- 

 priate balance between minimizing risk and ensuring the 

 continued development of the scientific and technological 



base. 



HUMAN RESOURCES FOR SCIENCE AND 

 TECHNOLOGY 



It is a truism that maximum effectiveness of the science 

 and technology enterprise requires that it be carried out by 

 the best and most highly trained individuals our society 

 can produce. That requires, at a minimum, that adequate 

 numbers of qualified young people be given the best 

 possible education in science and engineering, and that 

 adequate resources are available to permit them to make 

 use of their talent and training. 



Universities, the armed services, and, in certain critical 

 fields, industry are reporting severe difficulties in recruit- 

 ing sufficient numbers of qualified engineers and scien- 

 tists. Personnel shortages are most acute in computer 

 sciences, in the fields of chemical, electrical, and indus- 

 trial engineering, and, among scientific subspecialties, in 

 solid-state physics, optics, analytical chemistry, and tox- 

 icology.'^ Additionally, medical schools report increasing 

 numbers of vacancies in faculty research and teaching 

 positions (Section II-D). 



The Bureau of Labor Statistics has projected a 40 per- 

 cent increase in employment opportunities in science and 

 engineering occupations at all degree levels from 1978 to 

 1990." If present undergraduate enrollment trends persist 

 throughout the decade, there should continue to be more 

 than enough new graduates at both the bachelors and 

 Ph.D. levels in all of the traditional fields of science, 

 although unanticipated shortages in specific subfields may 

 develop. In contrast, there almost certainly will not be 

 sufficient numbers of people trained in computer science 

 in 1990, although those deficiencies can be alleviated by 

 people trained in related disciplines. The situation for 

 engineering personnel is more problematic. University 

 engineering departments are facing severe problems, dis- 

 cussed below, due to faculty shortages and equipment 

 obsolescence. Thus, it cannot be taken for granted that 

 engineering enrollments can, in fact, continue to expand 

 at a sufficient rate to satisfy anticipated demands. 



The anticipated supply/demand situation for Ph.D.- 

 level engineers is even less certain. Given reasonable 

 assumptions regarding inflation and productivity growth 

 rates, there should be adequate numbers of advanced 

 degree engineers by the end of the decade — provided that 

 such engineers are not used any differently in the future 

 than they are being used at present. It is precisely at this 

 point that the utility of quantitative personnel projections 

 in providing adequate assessments of the future can be 

 questioned. For although the total supply of Ph.D. engi- 

 neers — or for that matter bachelors-level engineers — may 



