2 THE FIVE-YEAR OUTLOOK 



The second, more qualitative, external factors derive 

 from the expectation that science and technology should 

 serve the public good. Effectively, those factors establish 

 priorities. They include rules, regulations, and resource 

 allocation policies and strategies, as well as exhortations, 

 that (1) are intended to focus the capabilities of science 

 and technology on either well-defined problems (such as 

 producing more fuel-efficient vehicles) or broad social 

 goals (such as more equitable health care among all seg- 

 ments of the population), or (2) are designed to mitigate or 

 eliminate present and future risks associated with prod- 

 ucts and processes made possible by science and technol- 

 ogy. The likely effects of some of those factors on research 

 and development during the next 5 years are mentioned in 

 Section B. Those factors also underlie a good deal of the 

 material in Chapter 11. which focuses on the likely rela- 

 tionships, during the next 5 years, of science and technol- 

 ogy to broad areas of national and international concern. 



The third set of factors also derives from the expectation 

 that science and technology can make significant contri- 

 butions to society. They are not related, however, to spe- 

 cific products and processes, but rather to linkages be- 

 tween science and technology and other types of activity. 

 As such, recognitionof their importance as external deter- 

 minants of advances in science and technology is of rela- 

 tively recent origin. Although scientific progress is ac- 

 knowledged to be an indispensable condition for 



technological development and, by derivation, for social 

 benefit, there is increasing recognition that those linkages 

 are not automatic and cannot be taken for granted. For that 

 reason there is a new concern with forging more effective 

 links between research, industrial innovation, productiv- 

 ity, and economic growth. Such trends are discussed in 

 Section C of this Chapter. 



Although they are almost truisms that science knows no 

 international boundaries and that technology is a key to 

 economic development, the implications of those state- 

 ments — and the qualifications that surround them — have 

 become much clearer in the last two decades as some 

 nations have made use of science and technology to chal- 

 lenge the preeminence of the United States, while others 

 have failed to grasp their promise . Important international 

 issues likely to affect both the U.S. science and technol- 

 ogy enterprise and the United States itself are highlighted 

 in Section D. 



Finally, science and technology have become such per- 

 vasive factors in industrialized societies that scientific and 

 technical information is now widely regarded as a valu- 

 able resource for decisionmaking and policymaking in 

 both the public and the private sectors. Nowhere is this 

 more evident than in the assessment and management of 

 risks to people or to the natural environment — the ultimate 

 support for people. Trends in that area are treated in 

 Section E. 



B. Maintenance and Development of the Science and Technology 

 Base* 



Since World War II. the United States has been a world 

 leader in science and technology. American research and 

 development programs, supported and conducted in the 

 public and private sectors, have maintained our world 

 leadership position in basic research, have provided the 

 educated people needed to define and attain national ob- 

 jectives in science and technology, and have provided 

 technological innovations needed to improve industrial 

 productivity and economic growth and to maintain our 

 national security. Over the past decade, American citizens 

 have won 57 Nobel FYizes in science and medicine, com- 

 pared with 28 abroad. Additionally, Americans continue 



'Abbreviations in parentheses appearing throughout the text refer to 

 more complete discussions in the companion Source Volumes. A key to 

 those abbreviations is given at the end of the Preface. Citations to the 

 pubhshed hterature are designated by footnotes. 



to publish a major portion of the scientific papers in a wide 

 range of fields (NRC-Obs.: NRC-13). 



However, America's international preeminence in both 

 science and technology is being challenged. Part of the 

 loss of our undisputed dominance in virtually all fields of 

 science and technology derives from the restoration of the 

 productive and intellectual capacities of Western Europe 

 and Japan that were destroyed during World War II. Addi- 

 tionally, recent studies suggest that, although the Nation's 

 scientific research system currently is strong, a range of 

 significant emerging problems could pose a threat to its 

 long-term vitality. Major stresses that appear to be de- 

 veloping include (1) fiscal and personnel resource con- 

 straints; (2) increasing costs of instrumentation for 

 advanced research activity; (3) growth of pressures for 

 short-term returns on research investments; and (4) demo- 

 graphic changes affecting the conduct of research carried 



