absence of any strong economic driving force may be 

 difficult obstacles to overcome in stimulating innovation 

 and economic growth (pp. 20-21). 



The appropriate degree and form of science and tech- 

 nology cooperation with the U.S.S.R. depends on many 

 factors. The political climate between the United States 

 and the Soviet Union plays a large role in determining the 

 volume of these exchanges, as does the willingness of the 

 Soviets to provide access to their best scientists and facili- 

 ties. Many U.S. scientists have decided to boycott ex- 

 changes with the Soviets over the treatment of their fellow 

 scientists, such as Sakharov, Orlov, and Brailovsky, in the 

 Soviet Union. Past governmental bilateral scientific ex- 

 changes have provided the United States with a window 

 into Soviet science, even though the Soviet scientists 

 probably gained more in a scientific sense than their 

 American counterparts. The efficacy of controls on the 

 exports of nonmilitary technologies is also a difficult 

 issue, in part because of the difficulty of prohibiting or 

 limiting access to a good deal of widely available scientific 

 and technical information (p. 21). 



RESOURCE MANAGEMENT AND ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES 



Ensuring the availability of oil and other critical raw 

 materials, including metals and certain specialized 

 woods, will continue to be a central problem for all 

 industrialized nations. With the industrialization of sev- 

 eral middle-tier countries, it is likely to become a more 

 difficult problem internationally. Thus, there are likely to 

 be increasing incentives for cooperative efforts to apply 

 science and technology to improve mineral resources 

 exploration, recovery, processing, and recycling tech- 

 niques as well as the development of substitute materials. 

 Cooperative efforts to improve management of the world's 

 tropical forests and prevent or reverse desertification of 

 arid lands can provide both short- and long-term benefits 

 for the United States. Assessments of the causes and 

 probable long-term effects of pollution in the oceans and 

 of increasing tluorocarbon and carbon dioxide con- 

 centrations in the atmosphere will also require continuing 

 attention (pp. 21-22). 



PROBLEMS OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 



Three related problems will continue to constrain eco- 

 nomic development in many less developed countries: 

 population growth, increasing food supply pressures, and 

 escalating world demand for petroleum. At least until the 

 middle of the next century, those problems are likely to be 

 regional rather than global because they will fall more 

 heavily on the poorer countries rather than threatening the 

 carrying capacity of the entire world. Most analysts agree 

 that the United States cannot continue indefinitely to bear 

 the major burden of food production for the world, and 



that, therefore, agricultural productivity in the less de- 

 veloped countries needs to be increased (pp. 23-24). 



One of the most effective ways in which individuals and 

 institutions in industrialized countries can help the less 

 developed countries realize their long-range development 

 objectives is to continue to assist them in building their 

 own indigenous science and technology capabilities. 

 President Reagan recognized the effectiveness of this 

 mode of cooperation in his pledge to devote greater 

 amounts of scientific and technical know-how to third 

 world problems. Such indigenous capabilities are essen- 

 tial for devising new technologies or adapting existing 

 technologies to local needs, for weighing alternatives 

 among available foreign technologies, and for assessing 

 probable impacts of different options for technological 

 development (pp. 24-25). 



SCIENCE. TECHNOLOGY, AND POLICYMAKING 



The sheer amount of information, including scientific 

 information, available to assist in policymaking processes 

 will continue to grow during the next 5 years, as will the 

 capabilities for handling, manipulating, communicating, 

 and retrieving it. For those reasons, the problems of how 

 to gain ready access to usable data that already exist are 

 likely to become more serious concerns in both the public 

 and the private sectors (pp. 25-26). 



METHODOLOGICAL IMPROVEMENTS IN GATHERING AND 

 INTERPRETING DATA 



The power of scientific information to help define and 

 illuminate policy problems and assess the impacts of 

 policy decisions has been enhanced considerably through 

 the use of conceptual and analytical tools developed by 

 various scientific disciplines. Methodological improve- 

 ments are expected to strengthen the reliability of survey 

 results concerned with the characteristics, actions, and 

 opinions of large groups, as well as the validity of demo- 

 graphic projections and certain types of economic projec- 

 tions. Improved methodologies should also permit better 

 interpretation of the data bases that have been gathered 

 systematically for the past 20 years about the current and 

 changing status of various institutions, including indus- 

 trial firms, educational institutions, scientific organiza- 

 tions, and government at all levels (pp. 26-27). 



SCIENTIFIC INFORMATION AND THE REGULATORY 

 PROCESS 



During the next 5 years both the public and private sectors 

 will probably make considerable use of scientific informa- 

 tion in assessing risks to health, safety, and the environ- 

 ment. A February 17. 1981, Executive Order of the Presi- 



xui 



