Executive Summary 



America's capabilities in science and technology have 

 provided the basis for its immeasurable contributions to 

 human knowledge about the natural and the manmade 

 universe. The deliberate and systematic application of that 

 knowledge has, in turn, contributed to improvements in 

 the quality of life and the environment, increased indus- 

 trial and agricultural productivity, economic growth, and 

 national security. Science and technology have provided 

 detailed information and analytical tools to assist in 

 weighing an array of policy options and in assessing the 

 impact of policy choices. And science and technology 

 have become important adjuncts to American foreign 

 policy. 



This Five-Year Outlook is based on the premise that the 

 unmistakable influence of science and technology on con- 

 temporary trends and outcomes is unlikely to abate. It 

 identifies an array of emerging national issues with high 

 science and technology relevance that are likely to con- 

 front the United States during the next 5 years. It describes 

 some of the problems, opportunities, and constraints as- 

 sociated with the use of science and technology to resolve 

 those issues, and it examines problems that may emerge as 

 a result of scientific and technological activities 

 themselves. 



The issues described in this report have been identified 

 in contributions from the National Research Council, the 

 American Association for the Advancement of Science, 

 the Social Science Research Council, and a wide range of 

 Federal agencies whose missions involve science and 

 technology. Many of the issues are generic in the sense 

 that they transcend or cut across specific substantive fields 

 or acknowledged areas of application. Those issues are 

 identified and described in Chapter 1 — and summarized 

 below — under four headings: (1) Maintenance and De- 

 velopment of the Science and Technology Base; (2) Con- 

 tributions of Science and Technology to Industrial Innova- 

 tion, Productivity, and Economic Growth: (3) The 

 International Context of U.S. Science and Technology; 

 and (4) Science, Technology, and Policymaking. Other 

 current and emerging issues center on problems, oppor- 

 tunities, and constraints that are closely related to particu- 

 lar substantive fields. Those problems, opportunities, and 

 constraints are identified and described in Chapter II — 

 and summarized below — under nine topical headings, 

 each corresponding to one of nine functional categories: 

 (1) National Security. (2) Space. (3) Health. (4) Energy, 

 (5) Natural Resources, (6) Environment, (7) Transporta- 

 tion, (8) Agriculture, and (9) Education. 



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