Generic Policy Issues* 



MAINTENANCE AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE 

 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY BASE 



The ability of American science and technology to sustain 

 their record of achievement will depend on maintaining 

 and developing the superlative infrastructure established 

 with public and private support since World War 11. Retro- 

 spective indicators demonstrate convincingly that the 

 United States has maintained its preeminence in scientific 

 research during the past 5 years. But signs of stress, 

 including resource constraints, demographic trends af- 

 fecting higher education, escalating instrumentation 

 costs, and pressures for short-term returns on research 

 investments, may well become more pronounced during 

 the next 5 years. With respect to technology, the United 

 States is no longer the undisputed world leader, as it was a 

 decade ago, in such basic areas as automotive design, 

 consumer electronics, scientific instrumentation, steel- 

 making, ship construction, and rail transportation, in part 

 because Japan and Western Europe have reestablished the 

 intellectual and productive capacities that were destroyed 

 by World War II. It is losing its lead in several key 

 defense-related technologies. As yet there is no evidence 

 of any diminution in the inventive capacity of American 

 scientists and engineers; rather, many perceive a failure in 

 following up and implementing their innovations. Yet the 

 above noted stresses, if they do not abate, could seriously 

 erode the science and technology base and therefore its 

 innovative capacity (pp. 2-3). 



FINANCIAL RESOURCES 



Total (civilian and military) national investments in re- 

 search and development (R&D) in the United States are 

 greater than in France, West Germany, and Japan com- 

 bined. The ratio of total annual national investments in 

 R&D to Gross National Product (GNP) declined in the 

 United States since 1967, but it is still higher than in all 

 other countries, with the possible exception of the Soviet 

 Union. The U.S. civilian R&D per GNP ratio has 

 plateaued at about the same level as in the United King- 

 dom and France, but considerably below that of West 

 Germany and Japan. Moreover, R&D investments in 

 those two countries are more sharply concentrated in areas 

 related to economic growth than is true in the United 

 States (pp. 3^). 



During 1981, total national expenditures for all R&D 

 activities in the United States were estimated to be $69.1 

 billion, with the Federal and industrial shares estimated at 



*Pagc numbers in parentheses refer to detailed discus.sions in the body of 

 the Five-Year Outlook. 



47 percent and 49 percent, respectively. Of the Federal 

 expenditures, approximately one half were allocated to 

 national security. National expenditures for basic research 

 during 1981 were estimated to be $8.8 billion, with the 

 respective Federal and industrial shares estimated at 68 

 and 16 percent (p. 3). 



Financial resources in the private sector for conducting 

 R&D are likely to remain constrained during the next 5 

 years, although improved economic conditions are ex- 

 pected to increase prospects for private sector invest- 

 ments. Thus, there are likely to be continuing incentives 

 for structural changes that might facilitate research, in- 

 cluding greater use of centralized facilities and coopera- 

 tive projects between university and industrial laborato- 

 ries. Cooperation among government, universities, and 

 industry in several defense-related areas of basic science 

 and engineering will likely increase (pp. 10-12). 



HUMAN RESOURCES 



If present undergraduate enrollment trends persist, there 

 should continue to be enough new graduates in most broad 

 fields of science and technology to satisfy anticipated 

 demands through the decade. However, spot shortages do 

 exist in certain subspecialties, and others may develop. 

 The greatest problems at present appear related to engi- 

 neers and computer scientists. University faculties, the 

 armed services, and, in some critical fields, private indus- 

 try are likely to continue to experience difficulties in 

 recruiting and retaining qualified engineers and computer 

 scientists, particularly persons with advanced degrees 

 (pp. 7-8). 



UNIVERSITY RESEARCH 



At present, universities and colleges and organizations 

 associated with or administered by universities conduct 

 about 10 percent of all the R&D in the United States and 

 about 50 percent of all the basic research. Universities are 

 likely to continue to experience problems related to the 

 costs of carrying out their activities and the decreasing 

 college age population from which undergraduate and 

 graduate students are drawn. Instrumentation obsoles- 

 cence in such equipment-intensive fields as physics, 

 chemistry, computer science, and the various fields of 

 engineering is likely to continue as a serious problem. 

 Openings for new Ph.D's in many university science 

 departments are likely to remain scarce into the next 

 decade (pp. 8-10). 



The numbers of Ph.D's awarded in engineering and 

 computer science have been decreasing since the eariy 

 1970s. In contrast, and unlike the situation in most scien- 



