Preface 



The Five-Year Outlook on science and technology and its 

 companion, the Annual Science and Technology Report to 

 the Congress, are required by Title II of the Science and 

 Technology Policy, Organization, and Priorities Act of 

 1976 (Public Law 94—282). Both reports are concerned 

 with current and anticipated developments in science and 

 technology and the effects of those developments on so- 

 ciety. Both are designed to provide a partial response to 

 the need, expressed by that legislation, for the Congress to 

 be "regularly informed of the condition, health and vi- 

 tality (of science and technology, and] the relation of 

 science and technology to changing national goals'" (Sec- 

 tion 102(b)-(6)) and for the executive branch to be able to 

 "identify and assess emerging and future areas in which 

 science and technology can be used effectively in address- 

 ing national and international problems" (Section 

 205(a)-(10)). 



Preparation of the two reports is the responsibility of the 

 Director of the National Science Foundation (NSF). Taken 

 in conjunction with the National Science Board's Science 

 Indicators, also prepared by NSF, they aim to provide a 

 set of tools useful for policy planning and assessment. 

 More broadly, they are intended as a framework for dialog 

 among the executive and legislative branches of the 

 Federal Government, practitioners and users of science 

 and technology in the public and private sectors, and the 

 general public. Science Indicators provides quantitative 

 information, with some analyses, about recent trends in 

 the resources devoted to science and technology and about 

 some quantifiable impacts and outputs of scientific and 

 technological activities. The Five-Year Outlook offers a 

 more qualitative and, in some sense, complementary view 

 of present and likely future trends. It identifies and de- 

 scribes current and anticipated developments in science 



and technology as well as trends external to science and 

 technology that are likely to have impacts on their con- 

 duct. The Five-Year Outlook also suggests ways in which 

 research can contribute to illuminating and resolving 

 problems of national concern, and it points to constraints 

 on the capacity of science and technology to make such 

 contributions. The Five-Year Outlook is not meant to, nor 

 does it, represent the official policies of the U.S. Govern- 

 ment. Rather, it serves as an interagency discussion docu- 

 ment and a focus for raising problems that might merit 

 policy consideration in the coming years. The Annual 

 Science and Technology Report, on the other hand, is a 

 comprehensive statement of the Administration's science 

 and technology policy. It discusses specific issues of con- 

 cern to the Administration, selected because they are both 

 timely and important, and because the Federal Govern- 

 ment has a legitimate and significant role in their solution . 

 The Annual Report also reviews Federally supported re- 

 search and development activities throughout the 

 Government. 



The two chapters that compose the body of the second 

 Five-Year Outlook on science and technology aim at two 

 different, but related, objectives. Chapter I focuses on the 

 impacts that science and technology are likely to have on 

 problems that transcend or cut across specific substantive 

 fields or areas of application and on the ways in which 

 developments external to science and technology are 

 likely to affect their conduct. Its emphasis is on trends 

 associated with four generic topics that are likely to con- 

 tinue to be important for at least the next 5 years: (I) 

 Maintenance and Development of the Science and Tech- 

 nology Base; (2) Contributions of Science and Technol- 

 ogy to Industrial Innovation. Productivity, and Economic 

 Growth; (3) The International Context of U.S. Science 



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