Functional Area Problems, Opportunities, and Constraints 59 



volved in that research is high. In 1980 the Congress 

 enacted the Fiision Research, Development, and Demon- 

 stration Act, which commits the Nation to an aggressive 

 program for the advancement of knowledge about fusion 

 technology. The scientific feasibility of fusion power is 

 likely to be demonstrated during the next 5 years at 

 facilities that are now nearing completion in Princeton 

 {ASTR-lII). A roughly similar test facility of the European 

 Community is nearing completion in England, as are test 

 facilities in Japan and the Soviet Union." Formidable 

 technical problems will still remain to be solved, however, 

 if a commercial-sized fusion power system is to be dem- 

 onstrated by the year 2000, as envisioned by the Fusion 

 Act (ENERGY). 



Development of the inertial fusion method is con- 

 sidered essential to address current and future nuclear 

 weapon design problems. During the next 5 years it is 

 expected that the necessary energy levels will be obtained 

 for fuel ignition using both laser and charged particle 

 beam sources. NOVA, the highest power driven laser 

 system, is presently scheduled to derqonstrate that fusion 

 can be induced by this method in 1983. A full demonstra- 

 tion of the scientific feasibility of the inertial approach 

 could be ready in about 10 years (ENERGY). 



IMPROVING ENERGY END-USE EFFICIENCY 



Increased energy-use efficiencies — that is, energy con- 

 servation — can strengthen national efforts to ameliorate 

 the energy problem in the near-term future, whereas ener- 

 gy derived from advanced technologies may take many 

 years to make a meaningful contribution. Energy con- 

 servation will also remain an imperative for the long- 

 range future regardless of what mix of sources is used. 

 The decontrol of oil prices is expected to have a major 

 impact on increasing energy-use efficiency (ENERGY). 



Two types of measures are available for increasing end- 

 use efficiency: those that permit substitution of scarce 

 fuels with more abundant fuels; and those that permit all 

 available energy to be used more efficiently. The first set 

 of measures includes, most notably, using liquid fuels 

 only where necessary. A number of utilities and a few 

 large industries are converting from oil to coal, and power 

 stations now under construction are designed to use coal, 

 natural gas, and, in some instances, nuclear fuels. A good 

 deal of attention is also being paid to developing systems 

 that will allow small industries to use coal efficiently to 

 generate process heat. All such efforts constitute the first 

 type of energy-efficient measure (ENERGY). 



Considerable progress toward implementing the second 

 type of measure has also been made through car pooling, 

 increased use of mass transit and smaller cars, and im- 

 proved building insulation, for examples. Prospects for 

 further improvements in the transportation sector are dis- 

 cussed in Section II-H. 



Additional energy savings are anticipated in the next 

 few years as manufacturing industries replace existing 

 capital equipment with more energy-efficient stock, intro- 

 duce energy-efficient processes, and make better use of 

 industrial wastes (NRC-14). Many such measures can be 

 taken by using or adapting existing technologies and are 

 limited primarily by capitalization costs. Cogeneration is 

 a particularly appealing possibility. It involves using in- 

 dustrial waste process heat rejected by a utility or large 

 industry for other purposes, usually for heating (ENER- 

 GY). Ultimately, the use of stronger, lighter, more heat 

 resistant materials should allow additional energy savings 

 in all sectors, but primarily in transportation and manufac- 

 turing. The availability of such materials will, however, 

 depend in part on research that is now in progress (NS; 

 ENERGY; Outlook I. v. I, pp. 16-17, 20-21). 



In general, the introduction of these and other energy- 

 efficient measures in the industrial sector should permit a 

 substantial increase in economic activity by the end of the 

 decade (ENERGY). Considerable near-term energy sav- 

 ings are also anticipated in agriculture, as discussed in 

 Section II-I. 



INTERNATIONAL PERSPECTIVES 



While the focus of this discussion is on the United States, 

 it is clear that since problems associated with energy are 

 worldwide, likely effects on other countries will of neces- 

 sity condition planning in this country. In particular, the 

 security of the United States gives this country a vital 

 stake in the economics and, thus, the energy supplies 

 available to its allies. Since the more important effects that 

 the energy problem is likely to have abroad are discussed 

 in detail in Section I-D, they will only be summarized 

 here. 



First, despite the current leveling of international prices 

 for petroleum, these prices are almost certain to increase 

 in the future as world demand increases and the supplies 

 themselves level off. Part of the increased world demand 

 will result from growth in the world's population. Addi- 

 tionally, middle-tier countries of the third world, includ- 

 ing several OPEC countries, are expected to increase their 

 demands significantly during the next 10 or 20 years, and 

 the U.S.S.R. may also have to begin importing oil by the 

 early 1990s.'" This increasing international competition 

 for petroleum may well result in increased occasions for 

 international irritation and tension. The United States can 

 mitigate these effects on itself by reducing its own de- 

 pendence on oil imports as much as practicable, thus, in 

 effect, backing off as far as possible from the competition. 



Second, it is worth noting that the world energy prob- 

 lem need not be entirely disadvantageous to the United 

 States. This country can continue to gain trade advantages 

 as an exporter of energy technology, as with other high 

 technology. Moreover, since coal will almost certainly 



