Funclidiuil Area Prohlcms. Opportunities, and Constraints 51 

 1 



Historical Projected 



50 



10 



Total Consumption 

 Oil Imports 



Solar, Hydro and Other 



., , Renewables 



Nuclear 



Coal 



Unconventional Oil and Gas 

 Alaskan Oil and Gas 



Conventional Oil and Gas 

 Including Gas Imports 



1960 



1970 



1980 

 Year 



1990 



FIGURE 4. U.S. Energy Produclion and Consumption to 1990 (Best Estimate Case). 



Source: DOE, Notice of Public Heanngs and Staff Working Papers: Public Discussion Package for the Third National Energy Plan. DOE/ 

 PE-0022. March, 1981. 



prices for supplies that are at best stable.' Thus by the turn 

 of the century, liquid fuels used in the United States will 

 most likely have to be derived from domestically pro- 

 duced petroleum; unconventional reserves of hydrocar- 

 bons (i.e., compounds of carbons and hydrogen) such as 

 oil shale, heavy oils, and tar sands; and fuels made from 

 coal and, to a lesser extent, from peat and agricultural 

 products (NRC-15). Since liquid fuels from all these 

 sources will be costly, their use will by then have to be 

 restricted primarily to the transportation sector and to a 

 few other situations where economic or environmental 

 considerations make the use of alternatives impractical 

 (ENERGY). Sometime during the 21st century, when 

 petroleum and (later) natural gas are no longer available at 

 any price, the United States will have to begin to rely 

 almost completely on some mix of unconventional hydro- 

 carbons, coal, nuclear fuels and renewable sources — 

 principally direct solar energy — to satisfy its energy 

 needs. 



The mix of energy sources used in the United States 

 during near and more distant future decades and the 

 percentage that each source contributes to total energy 

 consumption will depend on a number of related factors, 

 including domestic and international demand, availability 

 of conventional and unconventional hydrocarbons, rela- 

 tive end-use prices of various available alternatives, and, 

 of course, available technology. Considerable technologi- 



cal development will continue to be needed to exploit 

 available energy options even in the near-term future, and 

 a good deal of scientific research that will be needed as a 

 basis for those developments has yet to be carried out. 

 Thus, the public and the private sector have initiated a 

 range of scientific and technological programs aimed at 

 helping to ensure adequate energy supplies in the future 

 (ENERGY). 



Some analysts believe that the few years during which a 

 large Federal energy effort has existed have seen a marked 

 shift away from the long-term scientific research needed 

 to undergird future developments toward short-term re- 

 sults that could lead to rapid and, perhaps, premature 

 commercialization. Given uncertainties about the types 

 and mix of energy sources that will be economically and 

 technologically viable in the distant future, the desir- 

 ability of conducting research aimed at a wide range of 

 possible high-payoff alternatives is almost self evident. 

 Otherwise, the United States could become locked into 

 relying on a narrow set of options that could ultimately 

 prove not to be viable. For this reason. Federal support 

 during the next 5 years will focus on truly long-term, 

 potentially high-payoff scientific research (ENERGY). 



The situation regarding advanced development is con- 

 siderably different than for long-range research. In the 

 past the Federal Government subsidized a wide range of 

 technological developments. The Reagan Administra- 



