60 THE FIVE-YEAR OUTLOOK 



become a prime alternative to petroleum for industrial and 

 utility boilers within a very few years, and since 30 

 percent of the world's coal supplies are in the United 

 States, we could become a principal exporter both of coal 

 and of fuels made from coal. The availability of synthetic 

 fuels from the United States would also permit the indus- 

 trialized democracies to reduce their dependence on Mid- 

 dle Eastern petroleum as a source of liquid fuels." These 

 circumstances suggest that there can be other incentives, 

 in addition to expected escalating petroleum prices, for 

 developing a synthetic fuels industry. 



Finally, there are and will continue to be numerous 

 opportunities for international cooperation in energy re- 

 search and development that can benefit the United States. 

 Several U.S. synthetic fuel demonstration programs have 

 German and Japanese participants, for example. A central 

 problem in all cooperative research and development pro- 

 grams is how to distinguish between cooperative projects 

 that will yield long-term net benefits to the United States 

 and those that may give other countries an unwarranted 

 competitive edge. A useful rule of thumb has been to 

 cooperate in projects that are very expensive (so that 

 substantial short-term savings are possible) and that focus 

 on research that is unlikely to be applied to our disadvan- 



tage in the short term. Fusion research qualifies as an 

 appropriate area for cooperation according to this criteri- 

 on. However, it may also be desirable to cooperate in 

 fields with more immediate payoffs. For example, multi- 

 national consortia or new multinational companies may 

 well be needed to develop a viable world nuclear reactor 

 construction industry (NRC-14). 



With regard to international cooperation, it is worth 

 noting that no other country has the resources to maintain 

 as widespread an energy research and development pro- 

 gram as the United States, and few are so richly endowed 

 with fossil fuel reserves. As a result, there has been more 

 specialization overseas on technological options consid- 

 ered appropriate to specific national situations, such as the 

 breeder reactors in France, the United Kingdom, the 

 Soviet Union, and Japan; solar and geothermal energy in 

 Japan; ethanol from biomass in Brazil; and production of 

 synthetic fuels from coal in West Germany and South 

 Africa (NRC-14). As world petroleum prices continue to 

 rise, the incentives for the United States to engage in more 

 cooperative research and development projects and thus to 

 exploit some of the advances being made abroad is likely 

 to increase. 



REFERENCES 



1. See, e.g.. Richard A. Kerr. "Carbon Budget Out of Whack." 

 Science. Vol. 208 (June 20. 1980) pp. 1353-56; Cohn Norman. "Ener- 

 gy Conservation: the Debate Begins." Science. Vol. 212 (April 24. 1981) 

 pp. 424-26. 



2. See, e.g.. Office of Technology Assessment. World Petroleum 

 Availability J980-2000. Washmgton. D.C.: U.S. Government Printing 

 Office, October 1980. Also World Energy Outlook. The Ex.xon Corpora- 

 tion, 1981. 



3. Jeanne Anderer. el al. Energy in a Finite World: Paths to a 

 Sustainable Future. Volume 2. Cambridge. Massachusetts: Ballinger 

 Publishing Co.. 1981, pp. 59-61. 



4. Ibid.. Volume 1. pp. 131-168. National Academy of Sciences. 

 Committee on Nuclear and Alternative Energy Systems (CONAES). 

 Energy in Transition. l9H5-20Hh San Francisco: W'.H. Freeman. 1980. 



5. CONAES. op. cit. (Ref 4). pp 146-19. 



6. John G. Kemeny, Chairman. President's Commission on the Acci- 

 dent al Three Mile Island. The Need for Change: the Legacy ofTMI. 

 Washington. D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office. 



7. CONAES. op. cit. (Ref. 4). 



8. Anderer. el al.. op. cit. (Ref 3). Volume 1. pp. 70-71. 



9. Physics Today Vol. 33, No. 3 (March 1980) pp. 20-22. 



10. Exxon, op. cit. (Ref 2). 



11. Anderer, et al., op. cit. (Ref 3). Volume 1. pp 18-V85. 



F. Natural Resources 



One of the major elements in the progress of our civiliza- 

 tion has been the availability of a rich and varied supply of 

 natural resources, and at one time it seemed that the stocks 

 of naturally occurring resources that yielded food, shelter, 

 fuels, and other necessities of life were inexhaustible. 

 However, an ever-increasing world population, coupled 

 with continued rapid industrial growth, is placing such 

 demands on those resources that there is increased con- 

 cern that Earth's resources may not keep pace with the 



demands of future generations. The world's population 

 increased by 1.9 billion, or over 75 percent, between 19.50 

 and 1980 to the currently estimated level of 4.4 billion, 

 and current projections are that world population will 

 reach about 6 billion people by the end of the century 

 (AAAS-9). On the basis of those projections about popu- 

 lation growth and world development, there have been 

 warnings, for example, that the availability of fuelwtxid 

 and wood products could continue to decline as forested 



