Fkhc 



areas are used for other purposes; that shortages in. and 

 the quality of. water in many parts of the world may 

 worsen; that increased desertification of lands may occur, 

 with a resultant loss of range and cropland; and that 

 further population growth in some geographical areas 

 could be severely limited by Earth's capacity to support 

 life.' 



It is important to recognize that those dismal projec- 

 tions are extrapolations and not predictions. They depict 

 conditions that are likely to occur if there are no changes 

 in public policies, institutions, or rates of technological 

 development, and if there is no war or other major disrup- 

 tion (NRC-1). Therefore, they should be viewed as warn- 

 ing signals, pointing out areas that demand continued and 

 serious attention in the coming years and emphasizing the 

 urgency of emerging problems in natural resources and 

 the environment. 



Although there may ultimately be shortages in the 

 global supply of resources, problems for the near future 

 will lie more in the way those resources are distributed 

 geographically, and in their political and economic avail- 

 ability, than with their potential physical exhaustion 

 (NRC-I; AAAS-10). For example, a fresh-water shortage 

 for the world at large is not likely for centuries, but severe 

 shortages do exist today in some parts of the United States 

 and in some Middle Eastern and African countries. A 

 similar situation exists for other resources that are dis- 

 tributed unequally among countries and that may be un- 

 available to the countries in short supply because of trade 

 restrictions or economic costs (NRC-Obs.; AAAS-10). 



Science and technology can mitigate many potential 

 natural resources problems. For example, if an inexpen- 

 sive and renewable energy source were to be developed, 

 saline water could be converted to fresh water for food 

 production, clean-burning hydrogen fuels could be pro- 

 duced in quantity, and many scarce minerals that occur in 

 low-grade deposits could be extracted and processed eco- 

 nomically (NRC-1). But. it is not expected that such an 

 energy source will be widely available for several dec- 

 ades. In the interim, other technological advances can 

 lessen, although perhaps not immediately solve, many of 

 the resource problems that have been projected, and the 

 development and application of those technological ad- 

 vances are dependent on concerted policy actions in the 

 next 5 years. Several current and emerging problems in 

 natural resources are discussed below. 



ENSURING AN ADEQUATE SUPPLY OF 

 NONFUEL MINERALS 



Current trends suggest that the worldwide consumption of 

 major nonfuel mineral commodities will increase steadily 

 for the rest of the century, slightly more than doubling 

 current demand by the year 2000. While there is little 

 concern that the sources of those minerals will become 



tional Area Problems, Opportunities, and Constraints 61 



physically exhausted during that period, there are major 

 concerns that supplies to industrialized countries might be 

 disrupted either by price manipulations or for political 

 reasons (AAAS-10; lA). 



The major identified global reserves of several minerals 

 important to the economies of the United States and other 

 industrialized countries, such as cobalt, chromium, man- 

 ganese, platinum, bauxite, and copper, are located in a 

 few developing countries. In the past, those minerals 

 usually were readily available and inexpensive in the 

 world markets. However, many mineral-producing na- 

 tions have begun to increase their export earnings through 

 steady price increases. The high prices, coupled with the 

 political instability that characterizes many of the coun- 

 tries with large mineral resources, pose the danger of 

 those commodities eventually becoming too expensive for 

 cost-effective American use, or of there eventually being 

 major disruptions in the availability of critical nonfuel 

 minerals for use in the United States and in other indus- 

 trialized nations (AAAS-10; lA). 



Providing for an adequate supply of nonfuel minerals 

 has two time frames. In the short term (5-10 years), there 

 is little that science and technology can contribute in 

 preparation for dealing with potential supply interrup- 

 tions — either those due to cost factors or those occurring 

 for other reasons. Most science- and technology-based 

 strategies for ensuring an adequate mineral supply take 

 many years before they pay off. Therefore, our present 

 strategy, for the near term, is based on establishing and 

 maintaining a stockpile of critical materials. 



On the other hand, many suggested courses of action 

 for preparing the United States for potential supply inter- 

 ruptions in the longer term are heavily dependent on 

 scientific and technological activities. Three interrelated 

 approaches are discussed below. One is to expand the 

 resource base available to the country through further 

 mineral exploration. A second approach is to improve 

 both mining and processing technologies so that new sites 

 can be exploited and existing mining and processing ac- 

 tivities can be carried out more efficiently. The third 

 approach is to develop materials that can be substituted for 

 those minerals whose supply is threatened. 



ENHANCING THE AVAILABLE RESOURCE BASE 



One way to counteract a potential interruption in the 

 supply of minerals for use by the United States is to locate 

 additional mineral resources in sites more accessible to 

 the country. However, excluding the State of Alaska, the 

 United States is one of the most thoroughly prospected 

 nations of the world, and that raises two kinds of prob- 

 lems. First, so much of the country has already been 

 prospected that heretofore protected national lands would 

 have to be explored; consequently, problems connected 

 with proprietorship and the need to protect land resources 

 and the environment would be raised. Second, and with 



