Generic Policv Issues 23 



carrying out the research needed as a base for decision- 

 making about how to deal with this problem (ENERGY; 

 lA). 



GLOBAL ISSUES 



The final set of international issues likely to have an 

 impact on U.S. science and technology in the future arises 

 not so much from the results of science and technology, 

 but from the continued expectations of less developed 

 countries that science and, more particularly, technology 

 can provide a key to their economic development. That 

 expectation remains strong despite the fact that at present 

 only about 5 percent of the world's science and technology 

 resources are directly focused on problems of world de- 

 velopment (AAAS-6). 



Three large related problems constrain economic de- 

 velopment in the third world: continued population 

 growth, rising pressures on the world food supply system, 

 and increasing world demand for petroleum. Science and 

 technology have made and can continue to make impor- 

 tant contributions to relieving those constraints and, per- 

 haps, buying time for economic development. 



POPULATION 



The extraordinary force of recent changes and present 

 trends in the world's population has no precedent in 

 human experience (NRC-I; AAAS-9). World population 

 increased by 1.9 billion, or over 75 percent, from 1950 to 

 1980 (Figure 7). The rate of population growth is now 

 declining modestly, but it remains at an extraordinarily 

 high level by all standards of past experience. For exam- 

 ple, the population of Asia in 1980 (2.558 billion) was 

 slightly larger than what the total world population was in 

 1950 (2.513 billion). Current projections of the world 

 population in the year 2000 cluster about 6 billion, a 40 

 percent increase above the current level (AAAS-9). The 

 ultimate steady-state world population would occur when 

 a situation of fertility replacement (the so-called two child 

 family) is reached, and current projections are that the 

 world population will stabilize in the late 21st century at 

 around 9 billion people (NRC-1). Even with the uncer- 

 tainty in these population projections, their implications 

 for the world of the future could be very serious, par- 

 ticularly in terms of food, energy, minerals, and interna- 

 tional security (AAAS-9). The severity of the effects of 

 world population growth is dependent, however, on con- 

 comitant levels of scientific and technological advance. 

 For example, current progress in world agriculture and 

 industry suggests that world food and other production 

 could double in the next century. If those advances do 

 occur, one could be relatively secure about the overall 

 population/resource ratio for an ultimate 9 billion people 

 (NRC-I). 



10 



K 6 



■D 



a. 

 O 



a. 



1950 1955 1960 196S 1970 



1975 1980 

 YEAR 



1985 1990 1995 2000 



FIGURE 7. Population (Billions) m the World, 1950 to 2000. 



Note: Trends are given as they were assessed in 1978. 1950-1980 data are 

 estimates. 1985-2000 are projections. 1980 data are projections from 

 mid-1975 data, but may be viewed as best available estimates for 1980. 

 Source: W. Parker Mauldin, "Population Trends and Prospects," Sci- 

 ence. Vol. 209 (July 4, 1980), p. 156. 



But, such optimism may not be justified when individu- 

 al countries and regions are considered. Given expected 

 technological advances. Earth's overall carrying capacity 

 probably will not be exceeded, at least through the 21st 

 century. But, there are now and will continue to be severe 

 population/resource problems in some countries, par- 

 ticularly the less developed ones. Thus, a global approach 

 to the relationships between population and resources is 

 inappropriate; cases should be considered individually. 

 Bangladesh, for example, currently has little prospect of 

 attaining an acceptable balance between its population on 

 the one hand, and its land and other resources on the other 

 (NRC-1). In addition, migration rates within some coun- 

 tries, primarily from rural to urban areas, are increasing 

 dramatically. In the less developed countries, urban 

 growth rates are about double the high national growth 

 rates. Unprecedented urban agglomerations will appear in 

 the next 20 years, suggesting awesome problems in the 

 quality of urban life. International migration — legal or 

 illegal, temporary or permanent, political or economic — 

 is also growing, implying major dislocations and greater 

 demands for food, mineral resources, and energy in some 

 countries (NRC-1). 



In short, what is needed over the coming years is 

 recognition of, and attention to, the unequal distribution 

 among independent nations of population and resources, 

 and the possible role of science and technology in mitigat- 

 ing the potential negative impacts of that unequal distribu- 

 tion (NRC-1). The question of the appropriate U.S. role in 

 that and other aspects of world science and technology 

 development is discussed below and in more detail in the 

 accompanying Source Volumes (NRC-1; AAAS-6; 

 AAAS-7; AAAS-9). 



