22 THE FIVE-YEAR OUTLOOK 



major part of the solution to domestic — and interna- 

 tional — resource supply problems. Given resource dis- 

 tribution patterns and the long leadtimes and large capital 

 investments required to exploit science and technology to 

 this end, it is not feasible for a single country to carry the 

 burdens alone. Therefore, a commitment of R&D re- 

 sources to those objectives — by U.S. industries in concert 

 with those of other industrialized nations — might be one 

 profitable approach to be taken during the next 5 years 

 (AAAS-6). 



Another important resource management problem re- 

 quiring international attention during the next 5 years is 

 the rapid disappearance of tropical forests that are being 

 cleared in less developed countries to provide more land 

 for agriculture and other commercial purposes. The con- 

 tinued degradation of the world's tropical forests is par- 

 ticularly serious, since reforestation is not usually possi- 

 ble. Continuing loss of tropical forests would accelerate 

 the rate of extinction of tropical plants and animals and 

 undercut needed water development projects in certain 

 countries (Section II-F). It would also affect the avail- 

 ability of certain woods of importance to the United States 

 and, by decreasing the amount of carbon dioxide reab- 

 sorbed from the atmosphere, could contribute to global 

 changes in weather and climate. In December 1980, a 

 U.S. Goverment Interagency Task Group produced a re- 

 port on tropical forests that defines several immediate 

 scientific and policy goals. Recommended R&D ap- 

 proaches include a world analysis of the rates and causes 

 of tropical forest loss, further study of ecosystem dynam- 

 ics and forest management techniques, and major interna- 

 tional programs to inventory, evaluate, classify, and cata- 

 log unique forest plant and animal types (lA). 



A final example of essential transnational resource 

 management and development problems concerns protec- 

 tion of the world's arid lands. Since most of those areas are 

 in the poorer countries of the world, research aimed at the 

 control of desertification has consequences for avoiding 

 famine and human dislocations and can, therefore, be 

 classified as a global rather than as a transnational con- 

 cern. However, there are also many areas in the United 

 States threatened by desertification and, therefore, a good 

 deal of arid land research has implications that could lead 

 to better general land management in this country. Such 

 research also could have important consequences for 

 Mexico, which, as far as U.S. interests are concerned, is 

 one of the most important of the middle-tier countries. 

 The United States and Mexico have executed a joint 

 agreement on Arid Lands Management and Desertifica- 

 tion Control, which establishes a joint research program 

 to combat desertification along their common border 

 Positive results of activities taken under the auspices of the 

 agreement should emerge during the next 5 years (lA; 

 ASTR-W). 



INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES 



Pollution of the oceans and the consequent threat to their 

 living resources will continue as a transnational concern 

 for the indefinite future. The Intergovernmental Maritime 

 Organization Marine Pollution Convention articulates in- 

 ternational enforcement and protective procedures to con- 

 trol vessel-related pollution, most notably oil spills. 

 However, since 90 percent of the pollution of the marine 

 environment arises from land-based sources, a wider 

 ranging set of international conventions will be needed to 

 control the ocean environment (lA). No dramatic effect 

 can be expected during the next 5 years, since establishing 

 control will be a long-range, multifaceted endeavor But 

 small steps can be taken and are essential. 



Pollution of the atmosphere is a second transnational 

 environmental problem requiring continuing attention. 

 The problem of acid rain (or more properly acid precipita- 

 tion) associated with burning fossil fuels is discussed in 

 further detail in Section Il-G. There is marked concern in 

 the Scandinavian countries about the effects of pollutants 

 from the United Kingdom, and there is some evidence that 

 acid rain from U.S. sources may be causing ecological 

 damage in Canada. Therefore, the transnational at- 

 mospheric pollution problem requires focused attention 

 and no doubt will be discussed a great deal during the next 

 5 years (ASTR-III. AAAS-6; ENVIRON). 



Potential depletion of the ozone layer due to emissions 

 of fluorocarbons and other industrial materials, with pos- 

 sible resultant damage to plant, animal, and human life, is 

 another serious although much more long-term problem. 

 Additional research on the effects of industrial emissions 

 on the ozone layer and, consequently, on living organisms 

 is progressing. The results should provide means both for 

 a better assessment of the hazards involved and for the 

 eventual development of an effective, equitable interna- 

 tional regulatory regime, although no dramatic progress is 

 anticipated during the next 5 years (lA). 



Increasing atmospheric concentrations of carbon diox- 

 ide from all forms of fossil fuel combustion and. perhaps, 

 from deforestation could ultimately become the most se- 

 rious of all atmospheric pollution problems. It could be 

 exacerbated by excessive deforestation and the resultant 

 decrease in the capacity of the earth to reabsorb carbon 

 dioxide from the atmosphere. Increased concentrations of 

 atmospheric carbon dioxide could raise Earth's surface 

 temperature sufficiently to shift world patterns of agri- 

 cultural production and. by partially melting the polar ice 

 caps, raise ocean levels appreciably. However, since there 

 are considerable uncertainties about the details of the 

 complex mechanisms involved, there is considerable un- 

 certainty about what the consequences of different levels 

 of fossil fuel combustion will be. Hence, further research 

 on atmospheric processes and on world climate patterns is 

 required. The next 5 years could be critical ones for 



