42 THE FIVE-YEAR OUTLOOK 



Other words, per million pieces of binary information) to 

 something on the order of $6 per processed megabit. If the 

 current rate of decrease continues to 1990, the cost would 

 be reduced to $1 per megabit. Even so. the annual cost of 

 processing daily full-coverage data from an operational 

 Earth-resources satellite could still be extremely high 

 (SPACE). The problem of cost could hamper exploitation 

 of the full potential of remote-sensing capabilities during 

 the coming decades (SPACE; ASTR-llI). 



INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION AND 

 COMPETITION 



Since space projects are major, long-term undertakings, 

 they provide attractive opportunities for international co- 

 operation. The United States, as the world's leader in 

 space, has taken the lead in implementing many of those 

 opportunities. This country currently has a variety of 

 cooperative space science programs with other nations. 

 The largest and most complete cooperative space program 

 is Spacelab, developed by 10 European countries under 

 the management of the European Space Agency (ESA) 

 according to design specifications arrived at jointly by 

 NASA and ESA. NASA is also working with Canadian 

 and French agencies to develop and demonstrate a satellite 

 system that will locate ships and aircraft in distress by 

 monitoring the emergency beacons they carry. The Sovi- 

 ets are developing a similar system and have agreed to 

 make it compatible with the U.S. /Canadian/French sys- 

 tem. Cooperation between the United States and the 

 U.S.S.R. in the life sciences has provided this country 

 with some scientific information and some opportunities 

 to fly experiments during the current hiatus in U.S.- 

 manned flights (NRC-9; SPACE). 



The International Sun-Earth Explorer (ISEE) also in- 

 volves cooperation between NASA and the European 

 Space Agency. In this project, which explores the work- 

 ings at the boundaries of the Sun-Earth plasma, coordi- 

 nated measurements of the magnetosphere are being 

 made. A desirable future step in a comprehensive pro- 

 gram of cooperative research on the structure of the mag- 

 netosphere and its interaction with the solar wind would 

 involve measurements in the total Sun-Earth system from 

 a minimum of four spacecraft (NRC-9). 



The People's Republic of China (PRO has entered the 

 space era — successfully orbiting eight satellites and de- 

 veloping a launch vehicle to carry satellites into geo- 

 synchronous orbit — and opportunities for cooperation 

 with that country in civil space activities are beginning to 

 open up. Under a recently signed U.S./PRC agreement, 

 PRC is considering the purchase of major Earth-observa- 

 tion equipment from U.S. industry (SPACE). 



Civil space applications have also become a potential 

 arena for competition between this country and several 

 other industrialized countries that are rapidly developing 



their own capabilities. For example, Ariane, a predomi- 

 nantly French rocket, has been billed by some potential 

 European users as a possible alternative to the Space 

 Shuttle for delivering satellites into orbit. Although the 

 development of Ariane is somewhat behind schedule, the 

 long series of delays that plagued the Shuttle led the 

 International Telecommunications Satellite Organization 

 (Intelsat) to place orders for launching three satellites with 

 Ariane instead of with the Shuttle. 



Several less developed countries are already profiting 

 from U.S. space activities, particularly in the communi- 

 cations and remote sensing areas. Planning is in process 

 for the Second United Nations Conference on the Explo- 

 ration and Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (UNISPACE), 

 currently scheduled for 1982. The conference, the first 

 since 1968, will focus on the practical benefits of space 

 activities, particularly for the less developed countries 

 (SPACE). 



However, the '"window from space" provided by re- 

 mote sensing and communications satellites is by no 

 means universally acclaimed. Indeed, the capabilities of 

 those systems have led to demands — often strident — for a 

 "new world information order" that could place severe 

 limits on transborder information flow (AAAS-6). Com- 

 munications satellites that can beam programs directly to 

 home television receivers from distant locations are re- 

 garded by some countries as a violation of their national 

 sovereignty. In addition, remote sensing capabilities are 

 perceived as being, at worst, a new kind of economic 

 espionage posing a threat to the exclusive control of a 

 nation over its own national resources — a focus of colo- 

 nial exploitation. At best, the capabilities of both com- 

 munications and remote sensing satellites raise difficult 

 questions about who holds proprietary rights to informa- 

 tion, and those questions are bound to be hotly debated 

 during the next 5 years (AAAS-6: lA). 



A final source of potential friction that may, however, be 

 easier to resolve is associated with the concern of several 

 of the more scientifically advanced third world countries 

 that they are being preempted from implementing satellite 

 systems to serve their own domestic and regional needs. 

 There are. of course, only a limited number of positions 

 available for satellites in geosynchronous orbits, and at 

 present a relatively limited frequency band available for 

 satellite communications. Understandably, the less de- 

 veloped countries do not want to be completely dependent 

 on the good will of the industrialized countries for their 

 future communications needs, a situation that could easily 

 occur if available geosynchronous orbits and frequency 

 bands become rapidly saturated (SPACE; lA). On the 

 other hand, it is likely that technological developments 

 will greatly increase the information-handling capacity of 

 an orbital slot, as well as the number of noninterfering 

 slots, so that there may well be no shortage of channel 

 capacity in the future. 



