24 THE FIVE-YEAR OUTLOOK 

 FOOD AND AGRICULTURE 



Improved worldwide agricultural production will be re- 

 quired both to supply needed amounts of food and as a 

 central aspect in an effective worldwide attack on such 

 related issues as malnutrition, poverty, inflation, unem- 

 ployment, and population pressures. The United States is 

 the world "s greatest producer, consumer, and exporter of 

 food, and that agricultural capacity is important to Amer- 

 ica's current international economic position (AAAS-8; 

 AGR). Many analysts argue, however, that the United 

 States cannot carry indefinitely the major burden of food 

 production for the world. American land resources that 

 can be allocated to food production are limited and can 

 rapidly be depleted if misused, and continued high levels 

 of agricultural exports could raise domestic food prices to 

 unacceptable levels. In response to those constraints, the 

 United States can play an important role in increasing the 

 food production independence of other nations through 

 scientific and technological cooperation, thereby reliev- 

 ing some of the political and economic stresses that de- 

 stabilize international relationships ( AAAS-6; AAAS-8 ). 

 Increasing agricultural productivity in the less developed 

 countries will be difficult given the severe constraints 

 imposed by expensive energy and limited land and water 

 resources. It will require the development and use of new 

 technologies that provide maximum productivity for a 

 given set of input conditions and that take into account 

 potential environmental impacts (AAAS-8; AGR). That 

 topic is discussed in greater detail in Section II-I. 



The important contributions that basic research in biol- 

 ogy could make to solving a range of agricultural produc- 

 tion problems deserve particular mention. They include 

 development of more water-efficient, salt-tolerant, and 

 stress-resistant plants; development of plants capable of 

 fixing nitrogen from the atmosphere; and methods for 

 effective pest and disease control. Revelle notes, in this 

 connection, that the field of biology is in its infancy 

 (compared with physics and chemistry, for example) in 

 the sense that most fundamental discoveries remain to be 

 made." Investments needed to conduct basic research in 

 biology are also considerably less than for the physical 

 sciences. Those three circumstances — the applicability of 

 biology to agriculture, the relative newness of the field, 

 and the relatively modest investments required to pursue 

 it — commend biology as a promising discipline for de- 

 velopment in third world laboratories and in institutions in 

 the industrialized countries that seek to optimize their 

 contributions to economic development. 



ENERGY AND DEVELOPMENT IN THE LESS DEVELOPED 

 COUNTRIES 



The energy problem is particularly severe for those less 

 developed countries that have no appreciable fossil fuel 

 resources. Rising petroleum prices have placed many of 

 them under crushing burdens of debt and have forced them 



to curtail development plans. By the same token, import- 

 ing coal from one of the major potential future exporters 

 (Australia, the United States, the U.S.S.R,, or the Peo- 

 ple's Republic of China) would be feasible only if exports 

 were sufficient to earn the currency needed to pay for it. 

 Nuclear power may be an option for some, but not all. 

 middle-tier countries. Thus, except for a few special 

 cases, solar energy may seem to be the primary available 

 option. But, even that option is limited, since the poorer 

 countries are unlikely to be able to afford the sophisticated 

 material-intensive solar devices that may ultimately 

 provide appreciable energy in the industrialized 

 countries. 



Those circumstances lead to the conclusion that using 

 biomass for energy may be the best hope for the fossil fuel 

 deficient countries of the third world.'" Indeed, many of 

 the steps that could be taken to improve food production, 

 including investments in basic research in biology, could 

 also facilitate development of local biomass industries. 

 However, development of such industries even on a small 

 scale would divert labor and, no doubt, some land from 

 food production. While the effects of those dislocations 

 can be mitigated by careful planning, it is unlikely that the 

 energy dilemma facing the world's poorest countries can 

 be resolved without causing some additional problems. 



U.S. SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND WORLD 

 DEVELOPMENT 



A variety of mechanisms exist for direct technology trans- 

 fer to less developed or developing countries: some in- 

 volve private corporations, some are based on bilateral 

 U.S. Agency for International Development (AID) assist- 

 ance, and others involve transnational enterprises and 

 international agencies. However, in order for the develop- 

 ing countries to make effective use of transferred tech- 

 nologies, they need the capability to set realistic objec- 

 tives, to negotiate technical contracts, to weigh subtle 

 choices among technologies, and, in general, to be aware 

 of technological or economic options. That is, developing 

 countries require a significant internal scientific and tech- 

 nological capability. Acquiring that capability can, in the 

 long run, enhance economic performance. This has been 

 demonstrated by such countries as India and Korea, where 

 having sufficiently well developed science and technology 

 infrastructures has allowed them to adapt and use acquired 

 technologies effectively (AAAS-6; AAAS-7). 



The United States has the potential to provide the type 

 of continued assistance that will permit those countries to 

 develop and strengthen their own science and technology 

 capabilities (AAAS-7). In doing so, the United States 

 may also be able to strengthen its bilateral relations with 

 specific countries, as it has done with nations as diverse as 

 Korea, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the People's Republic of 

 China. Means that are available for fostering indigenous 

 capabilities include training programs for technical per- 



