32 THE FIVE-YEAR OUTLOOK 



importantly to other areas. In fact, many problems have 

 aspects or ramifications that transcend functional area 

 lines. For example, the Nation's water resources and their 

 allocation are discussed specifically in the section on 

 natural resources, but they are also critical issues for 



agriculture and for energy. In turn, issues related to our 

 future energy resources pervade all functional areas. 

 Linkages are noted, where possible, but each problem or 

 opportunity is discussed in detail only once. 



B. National Security* 



Science and technology have altered drastically not only 

 the nature and scale of armed conflict in this century, but 

 also the very meaning of strategic war as an option to 

 achieve national objectives. Thus, the strength and pro- 

 ductivity of a nation's advanced technological capability 

 have become major elements in any geopolitical calcula- 

 tion (AAAS-6). 



Since 1967. total national investments for research and 

 development, measured as a percentage of Gross National 

 Product, have been consistently higher in the Soviet 

 Union than in any other country in the world (SI -78). 

 Dollar cost estimates for Soviet military research, de- 

 velopment, testing, and evaluation (RDT&E) expendi- 

 tures indicate that they have exceeded annual U.S. expen- 

 ditures during each of the past 10 years, leading to an 

 aggregate gap of about $90 billion, measured in 1982 

 dollars. Moreover, an increasing share of Soviet military 

 outlays is being devoted to RDT&E. Despite this im- 

 balance, the United States has maintained its leadership in 

 most basic technologies, in large measure because of its 

 leadership across a broad range of commercial tech- 

 nologies. But the Soviet Union has been closing the gap in 

 certain key areas, including electro-optical sensors, guid- 

 ance and navigation, hydroacoustic technology, optics, 

 and propulsion. 



Federal R&D funding patterns for national defense 

 from 1971 to 1982 are shown in Figure 1. The significant 

 increases in proposed obligations for 1981 and 1982 reflect 

 the President's commitment to rebuild U.S. defense ca- 

 pabilities. Proposed budget obligations for defense-re- 

 lated R&D will continue to increase during the next 5 

 years. 



Since the overall U.S. international position with re- 

 spect to advanced technology has a direct bearing on 

 national security, the R&D programs of the Department of 

 Defense aim not only at the development of specific 

 defense-related technologies, but also at the maintenance 

 of broad-based, long-range R&D capabilities in the pri- 



o 



Q 



24 



22 



20 



18 



16 



14 



12 



10 



8 



6 



4 



2 



64 

 62 

 60 

 58 

 56 

 54 

 52 

 50 

 48 

 46 

 44 



.42 

 



1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1982 1.982 



FIGURE I. Federal R&D Funding for National Defense FY 1971-82. 

 Sources: National Science Foundation and Office of Management and 

 Budget 



vate sector in such key areas as electronics and materials. 

 Thus, increasing Federal funds for defense-related R&D 

 will support programs in universities and in private indus- 

 try, as well as in the Department of Defense's own 

 facilities. 



Succeeding subsections provide brief descriptions of 

 several programs likely to yield important results in the 

 next 5 years in the areas of microelectronics, electronic 

 systems, materials technology, aeronautics, space defense 

 and surveillance, nuclear test detection, and human re- 

 sources. Additional details about those programs, as well 

 as anticipated advances in the development and testing of 

 new conventional weapons systems, appear in the report 

 of the interagency task group on national security in the 

 Source Volumes. Speculations regarding aspects of na- 

 tional security that are not directly related to military 

 systems also appear in the Source Volumes (AAAS-Obs.; 

 AAAS-6: AAAS-11). 



*Unless otherwise noted, the material in this section is based upon the 

 report submitted to the National Science Foundation by the interagency 

 task group on national security that appears in the second ot the accom- 

 panying Source Volumes. 



ELECTRONIC COMPONENTS 



One area in which the United States maintains a clear 

 technological advantage over the Soviet Union is in elec- 



