Park. — On the Amount of Coal in Neio Zealand. 331 



future, we arrive at the conclusion that in 1957 — that is, sixty- 

 nine years hence — our output would be thirty times its present 

 amount, and that something like a third of the coal existing 

 on these islands would by that time have been consumed ; and 

 it should be noted that this third would represent the most 

 available, the most easily-worked, and the most valuable of 

 our coal. By this computation our coal would be exhausted 

 about the year 1978, or in ninety years from the present time. 

 In 1978 the calculated output would be 48 , 100,000 tons ; but 

 it would be misleading to imply that this enormous output 

 will come suddenly to an absolute stop. It is quite obvious 

 that at some point in the interval the output must reach a 

 maximum, after which, by the operation of certain causes 

 which must act on the output, the production will gradually 

 diminish till the inevitable point of exhaustion is reached. 



Assuming that the low rate of increase indicated above 

 continues in the immediate future, the choicest and most 

 available half of om- coal would be consumed in 1961, the 

 total estimated output at that date amounting to 502,775,000 

 tons. In that year the output would be 24,275,000 tons ; 

 and, assuming that at this point the maximum output is 

 reached, and that a geometrical decrease backwards com- 

 mences from that year, the date of exhaustion would be some- 

 where about the year 2053 — that is, 165 years from the 

 present tune. 



It should always be remembered that the total quantity of 

 available coal in New Zealand is only equal to about five 

 years' output of Great Britain, and is, in fact, contained twice 

 over in the coalfields of the county of Cumberland alone. It 

 is only when our annual output is placed against the total 

 amount that our stores of coal can be spoken of as vast or 

 extensive. 



Steam is the great motive-power of the period ; conse- 

 quently the growth and development of our manufactures and 

 shipping must always be relative to, and in many cases caused 

 by, the production of coal. As, therefore, the inevitable must 

 come, whether in ninety years or 165 years, it is necessary 

 that our coal-deposits should be worked with economy and 

 with a regard to the future as well as the present prospects 

 of this important industry. 



