

computerization. Then, after a few 

 years, they find out that the thing 

 doesn't quite work this way and 

 the tropics cannot be approached 

 by the methods used to solve prob- 

 lems in higher latitudes. 



Training of Tropical Meteorolo- 

 gists — Almost e'very professional me- 

 teorologist in Burma and Thailand 

 holds an advanced degree in meteor- 

 ology from a foreign university, and 

 yet their contributions to knowledge 

 of even their own country's meteor- 

 ology has been miniscule. In part, 

 this is because many monsoon-area 

 meteorologists have received inten- 

 sive training in other countries, espe- 

 cially in the United States and the 

 United Kingdom, but almost never by 

 teachers with any experience in, or 

 appreciation of, monsoon meteor- 

 ology. In this country, even the 

 tropical meteorologists who instructed 

 them, confidently and quite unjustifi- 

 ably, would extrapolate their tropical 

 oceanic experience to the continents. 



Numerical forecasting is the latest 

 invader from the higher latitudes. 

 Since some of the training received in 

 other countries is at last beginning to 

 seem relevant, everyone with access 

 to a computer is trying out the 

 models. Despite the fact that none 

 of the models has demonstrated any 

 weather forecasting skill over the 

 Caribbean and around Hawaii, and 

 despite the fact that problems of 

 grid-mesh size are even more critical 

 over the continents than over the 

 oceans, resources which can ill be 

 spared are being squandered on the 

 latest fad — on the unsupported and 

 unjustified assumption that numeri- 

 cal forecast techniques have already 

 significantly improved on subjective 

 analysis and forecasting in the tropics. 

 The machine churns out reams of 

 charts — while professional meteor- 

 ologist positions remain unfilled. 



In the monsoon area, the best aid 

 to local forecasting is the cloud pic- 

 ture from an Automatic Picture 

 Transmission (APT) satellite. But the 

 only way to use this information 



intelligently is through hard, subjec- 

 tive evaluation, and this is so un- 

 fashionable that a computer is often 

 considered more desirable than an 

 APT read-out station. A monsoon- 

 area meteorologist, after intelligently 

 and deliberately studying a detailed 

 climatology and a sequence of care- 

 fully analyzed synoptic and auxiliary 

 charts (including APT pictures), can 

 forecast consistently better than 

 chance and significantly better than 

 a numerical model. A statistical pre- 

 diction should always be available to 

 him. He should modify that predic- 

 tion only when he discovers a sig- 

 nificant change trend in the charts. 

 When in doubt, stay with statistics. 

 This may seem obvious, but such 

 down-to-earth advice is rarely given 

 during academic instruction. 



Training Facilities in the Tropics — 

 If training in middle-latitude institu- 

 tions is so inadequate, what about 

 indigenous programs? 



In Asia, the Royal Observatory, 

 Hong Kong, is a good but small cen- 

 ter of research, emphasizing urban 

 pollution and hydrological planning. 

 Useful, practical, and theoretical 

 studies are being pursued in the 

 People's Republic of China. The In- 

 stitute of Tropical Meteorology in 

 Poona, India, is conducting good cli- 

 matological studies but is also un- 

 critically applying numerical forecast 

 models developed in Washington, 

 D.C., and Honolulu. The program in 

 the University of the Philippines, 

 launched with some fanfare three 

 years ago, has apparently made no 

 progress — an expensive faculty waits 

 for enrollments but is ignored by 

 meteorological services in the region. 

 The Department of Geography in the 

 National University, Taipei (Taiwan), 

 has done good work, particularly on 

 the effects of typhoons, while the 

 Department of Oceanography in the 

 University of Malaya (Kuala Lumpur) 

 has made a promising beginning with 

 useful climatological and synoptic 

 studies. 



Apart from a small department of 

 meteorology in the University of 



Nairobi, in Kenya (which has turned 

 out at least one promising scientist), 

 and, possibly, some activity at the 

 University of Ibadan, in Nigeria, 

 nothing much seems to be happening 

 in Africa. Australia largely neglects 

 monsoon meteorology except for a 

 small in-house effort in the Regional 

 Meteorological Center, Darwin. 



Over-all, the U.S. military interest 

 in southeast Asia has contributed 

 more to meteorological research and 

 to improvement in meteorological 

 training in the monsoon area over 

 the past five years than any other 

 factor. Research conferences spon- 

 sored by defense agencies have pro- 

 duced significantly more than just 

 military benefits. One spin-off was 

 the World Meteorological Organiza- 

 tion training seminar conducted in 

 December 1970, in Singapore. 



Summing up, short-range monsoon 

 weather forecasting can be improved, 

 but there is little chance of improve- 

 ment stemming from the BOMEX ex- 

 periment in the Atlantic (see Figure 

 VI-11) or from continued training of 

 monsoon-area meteorologists in insti- 

 tutions with little understanding of, 

 or interest in, the peculiar problems 

 of monsoon weather. More can prob- 

 ably be done by supporting the efforts 

 in Taipei, Hong Kong, Kuala Lumpur, 

 and Nairobi, particularly in the direc- 

 tion of temporarily assigning out- 

 side experts (perhaps on sabbatical 

 leaves) to these places. The experts 

 might even learn something from the 

 experience! 



Scientific Communication — One 

 other serious problem is that research 

 into monsoon meteorology is pro- 

 vincial. Investigators have seldom 

 been aware that in other monsoon 

 regions similar problems have been 

 under study or even solved. Insuffi- 

 cient scientific communication partly 

 accounts for this. The only widely 

 distributed journals are published in 

 middle latitudes. Regional journals 

 or research reports are often well dis- 

 tributed beyond the monsoon area 

 but poorly distributed within it. 



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