COMP( I \riONSHIPS 



major oceans. Others are required 

 for specific coastal regions and, fi- 

 nally, for specific estuaries. Within a 

 geographic class, models will be 

 needed for specific purposes in addi- 

 tion to at least one base model pri- 

 marily describing plant-environment 

 effects. The addition of such models 

 to the tools presently available to 

 managerial personnel and policy- 

 makers at the international, national, 

 and local levels could be one of the 

 most important steps to be taken in 

 the near future. 



Although it is difficult to predict 

 the amount of time required to build 

 these models, some of them should 

 be operational within the next five 

 years. Obviously, the potential dan- 

 gers inherent in an inaccurate or 

 incorrect model are great, and it is 

 absolutely essential that careful con- 

 sideration be given to validation, a 

 step that is almost certainly more dif- 

 ficult than building the model. 



If the models are to be useful, 

 provisions must be made for collect- 

 ing the required input data. Although 

 it is not usually possible to specify 

 these requirements with accuracy un- 



til the models are built and running, 

 intelligent guesses can nevertheless 

 be made; and if serious modeling ef- 

 forts emerge, they should be made 

 available to the various environ- 

 mental monitoring programs such as 

 GNEM (Global Network for Environ- 

 mental Monitoring) at an early date. 

 The potential of the simulation mod- 

 els for the detection of anomalous 

 conditions should not be overlooked; 

 perhaps it is not too early to propose 

 the use of simulation models for 

 monitoring to GNEM and other plan- 

 ning groups. Monitoring possibilities 

 are especially attractive at the local 

 level. For example, the deviation of 

 the pattern of the phytoplankton 

 plume produced by a marine sewage 

 outfall from that predicted by a vali- 

 dated model might be used to indi- 

 cate that a toxic compound of a 

 certain class had been introducd into 

 the collection system; the approxi- 

 mate quantity might be indicated as 

 well. 



The resources for carrying out the 

 necessary research and computer pro- 

 gramming are severely limited at 

 present. However, the progress in 

 simulation modeling made by mete- 



orologists, especially at N (Na- 



tional Center for Atmospheric Re- 

 search), is immediately useful, and 

 the interests of young oceanographers 

 and graduate students are highly com- 

 patible with such a program. Given 

 an environment amenable to interdis- 

 ciplinary research, computer facilities, 

 laboratory facilities, ship time, ac- 

 cess to aircraft, etc., the work could 

 be carried out with a good probability 

 of success. Provision for training of 

 students should, of course, be implicit 

 in any such effort, since the intel- 

 ligent use of any successful models 

 will depend on the availability of 

 qualified scientists of very high cal- 

 iber. 



The highest priority should prob- 

 ably be given to the development of 

 ocean-wide models in view of the 

 potential dangers inherent in the 

 present situation, the virtual impos- 

 sibility of applying any positive cor- 

 rective action, and the long recovery 

 time implied by the nature of the 

 ocean circulation. However, the rap- 

 idly increasing rates of coastal and 

 estuarine pollution call for strong ef- 

 forts in modeling of these systems, 

 too. 



235 



