1586 



quence of the trade pacts; (e) economic changes in the U.S.S.K.; 

 (f) political consequences for the United States; and (g) political 

 consequences for the U.S.S.R. For some cells in the matrix there are 

 fairly high probabilities; for others the forecasts are contingent on 

 political developments and policy decisions. However, a few con- 

 jectures on parts of the matrix are offered as follows: 



U.S. -U.S.S.R. TRADE PROSPECTS 



Although starting at a low level, with the exception of imports of 

 grain, the U.S. -Soviet trade prospects are judged likely to grow at a 

 substantial rate. 



Current projections indicate a substantial increase in U.S. -Soviet economic 

 exchanges. Improved economic relations are officially considered to be part of a 

 pattern of changing U.S. -Soviet relations in many areas. The trade agree- 

 ment, along with the summit agreements on strategic arms limitations and 

 other matters, linlcs national security considerations, economic relations, tech- 

 nology policy, and the conduct of diplomacy between the two major powers. 

 President Richard Nixon and Soviet Communist Party Secretary Leonid Brezhnev 

 both postulate that the changes occurring in U.S. -Soviet relations will influence 

 the stability of the int-eniational community for some years to come. (p. 531) 



Traditional Soviet exports have included fur skins, nickel, palla- 

 dium, platinum, chrome ore, crude oil and petroleum products, coal 

 and coke, cotton, wood and wood products, diamonds, inorganic 

 chemicals, and nonferrous metals. Expansion of U.S. imports of 

 Soviet products subject to tariffs are dependent on MFN status for 

 the U.S.S.R. While the structure of Soviet exports is heavily biased 

 toward raw materials, foodstuff, and semimanufactures, Soviet 

 officials have indicated a desire to expand their export portfolio into 

 machinery and equipment, more intensively technological in char- 

 acter. These include: 



Machinery and mechanical equipment. — Forging and pressing equipment; 

 rolling equipment; mining machinery; power equipment — hydraulic and steam 

 turbines; machinery for food preparation; textile machines; printing equipment; 

 road-building machinery; and parts of machines — antifriction bearings. 



Electrical machinery and equipment. — Generators; transformers; radio receivers 

 and components; and electronics components. 



Transportation equipment. — Aircraft — supersonic airplanes, helicopters; motor- 

 cycles; seagoing freighters — tankers, dry cargo; seagoing passenger ships — 

 hydrofoils; and tractors. 



Miscellaneous equipment. — Measuring instruments — optical, meteorological, 

 et cetera; medical equipment; tools, watches and components; cameras, photo- 

 graphic accessories; and movie projectors and accessories, (p. 564) 



j\iore broadly, Soviet dollar earnings were considered in the report 

 as likely to come from the following sources : 



(1) Increased Soviet exports of raw materials, such as energy sources and 

 metals, and industrial goods; 



(2) Gold sales; 



i'i) Nontrade income, such as tourism and shipping; 



(4) Multilateral relations, such as balancing a trade deficit with the United 

 States by a trade surplus with Japan; 

 (.5) Cooperative ventures ; and 

 (fi) Credits (only a short-term consideration, as eventual repayment is required, 



plus interest), (p. .Idl) 



In assessing the prospects for Soviet export trade to the United 

 States the report noted a number of significant variables: (a) Soviet 

 willingness to shift exports of oil and gas ifrom other markets, including 

 domestic and Comecon, to the United States, (b) trade credits avail- 

 able to the U.S.S.R. from the Export-Import Bank, the Commodity 



