1588 



1. Soviet reliance on the United States as a source of supply and expertise. 

 Soviet dependence on U.S. agricultural products and advanced technology, for 

 example, is a potential source of U.S. political leverage. 



2. Encouragement to the Soviet Union to reorder priorities between military 

 and civihan programs. Expanded commercial relations may serve as an economic 

 reinforcement of the arms control and other agreements between the two countries. 



3. Encouragement of domestic change in the Soviet Union. The presence of 

 many American citizens in the Soviet Union with some decisionmaking power 

 and a wider exchange of ideas may in the long run contribute to a moderation of 

 the Soviet political control system and command economy, (p. GOl) 



RISKS VERSUS POTENTIAL GAINS 



On balance, the political risks to the United States were larger and 

 longer range; the economic gains to the Soviet Union were surer and 

 earher. In particular, the transfers of U.S. technology to the U.S.S.R. 

 might 3^ield only long-term political and diplomatic benefits to the 

 United States. 



Still, the report offered two summary assessments of a hopeful 

 character for U.S. -U.S.S.R. diplomatic relations. The first involved 

 internal Soviet policy. 



Three options for economic change open to the Soviet leadership are, in order 

 of probability: (1) a reduction of the priority for new strategic weapons systems; 

 (2) a cutback in military manpower; and (3) a withdrawal of party control and 

 involvement in the economy so as to permit ijnproved efficiency through economic 

 reform. All are issues which will be influenced by both the international situation 

 and domestic political considerations. A downward revision in the priority for 

 further military weapons buildup, for example, is likely only if the economic 

 rationale is persuasive and the domestic political and international climate are 

 favorable, (p. 557) 



The second assessment, while warning of the hazards of the situa- 

 tion, suggested that there could be important benefits in the promotion 

 of closer Soviet economic relations with the United States and the 

 rest of the non-Communist world. • 



In summar}'-, expanded economic relations which facilitate massive technology 

 transfer from the United States to the U.S.S.R. may create new, potentially 

 dangerous dimensions in U.S. diplomacy. On the other hand there is at least a 

 possibility that the process of integrating the centrally planned Soviet economy 

 into the market economy of the United States and the rest of the non-Communist 

 world might unleash irreversible forces of constructive change which could, in 

 turn, contribute to international interdependence and stabihty. (p. 601) 



Author's Reassessment 



This case was revisited by the authors in mid-1977 to ascertain what 

 relevant changes in outlook had occurred in the intervening 4 years. 

 Their reappraisal, and a list of questions posed in the original study 

 and in the 1977 review, conclude this abstract. 



EAST-WEST TRADE IN PERSPECTIVE 



U.S. trade with the Communist world has grown rapidly in the 1970s. 

 While it is still small in comparison with overall U.S. foreign trade, 

 considerable significance has been attached to East-West trade because 

 of the prospects for future growth and, more importantly, because of 

 the linkage of commercial ties with East-West political relations. 

 Congressional consideration of important legislation relating to East- 

 West trade has been influenced by increased interest in tlie U.S. 

 business community in trade with the East, continued efforts to achieve 

 detente with the Soviet Union and China, and controversy about cer- 

 tain aspects of Soviet foreign domestic policies. 



