1613 



An interesting contemporary example of both the importance and 

 the ambivalence of technological impact on diplomacy is the reception 

 by the "Third World" of the U.S. plan for earth resources satellite 

 surveys. These were recognized as beneficial in the discovery and 

 inventorying of resources but denounced as an invasion of sovereignty 

 and a means by which rich nations would be enabled to plunder the 

 minerals of the poor countries. 



One conclusion of considerable importance was neglected in this 

 study: that the kinds of impacts of a given technology and the rate 

 at which they occur are susceptible of analysis leading to prediction. 

 The study of diplomatic consequences of a technology is accordingly 

 a vital activity. The impacts are reasonably foreseeable, and the 

 necessary diplomatic responses can likewise be defined in advance 

 with careful study. But they seldom are. With the benefit of hindsight, 

 this neglected area of diplomatic planning was later discusse d in 

 Science and Technology in the Department oj State. 



The purpose of this initial study was to define and explore the 

 universe of technology as related to diplomacy. The principal issue 

 it raised that might have taken legislative form concerned the relative 

 utility for U.S. diplomacy of bilateral versus multilateral programs. 

 This issue runs as a theme throughout many of the subsequent studies. 

 However, the question persists and the need for its examination as a 

 policy issue is greater than ever. The space program is the subject of 

 some 250 bilateral agreements. Bilateral science agreements number 

 another 50 or so. Atomic energy bilaterals are continuing to pro- 

 liferate. Precisely how these are coordinated for foreign policy pur- 

 poses, and how they relate to multilateral objectives and programs, 

 is a continuing perplexity. 



Both for the 1970s and for the rest of the present century, the issue 

 of global management of technology is likely to remain a foremost 

 concern of U.S. diplomacy. 



Some Illustrative Questions 



What are the U.S. diplomatic goals that are served, or contravened, 

 by the international spread of technology and its impacts? 



How do U.S. diplomatic goals that involve technology relate to 

 those of other nations? 



What mechanisms or institutions are there, or might there be, to 

 reconcile U.S. and foreign diplomatic goals respecting technology? 



How is U.S. diplomatic planning conducted with reference to the 

 uses and concerns of technology? 



What is the present balance in the U.S. Government's effort as 

 between maintenance of deterrent force and emphasis on technological 

 programs serving constructive peaceful purposes? What balances of 

 this sort are observable in other nations? Could the uses of peaceful 

 technology be further extended for diplomatic purposes? 



What domestic developments in technology might be encouraged in 

 support of U.S. diplomatic goals? 



How far into the future is it possible to project analyses of tech- 

 nological change, and with what degree of probability? 



How does technological analysis compare with economic analysis 

 and political analysis as to predictive power? 



