1542 



^—Extension of the concept of safeguards from simply detecting 

 and announcing diversion or theft of nuclear materials to in- 

 clude the prevention of theft and recovery of stolen materials. 



— Whether the influence gained by the United States' long- 

 standing but now diminished role as the principal free-world 

 supplier of enriched uranium has justified the cost, and whether 

 it is in the U.S. interest to expand the Nation's capacity to make 

 enriched uranium sufficiently to maintain a free world monopoly. 



— The effectiveness of U.S. diplomatic efforts to persuade nu- 

 clear supplier countries to limit their exports of dangerous nu- 

 clear products and technology. 



— International or multinational organization and operation of 

 nuclear fuel service facilities. 



— Whether commercial use of plutonium is inevitable and, if 

 so, the implications of a plutonium economy for national and 

 international safeguards. 



SOME LESSONS FROM THE STUDY OF COMMERCIAL NUCLEAR POWER 



The subject of commercial nuclear power in Europe continues to be 

 particularly illustrative of the interaction of science, technology, and 

 diplomacy. This interaction is highlighted by such matters as the 

 further favorable development of the gas centrifuge, the new prospects 

 of laser enrichment of uranium, the possibility of transfrontier pollu- 

 tion from nuclear powerplants, demands that international nuclear 

 safeguards be strengthened, and prospects for more vigorous inter- 

 national cooperation to develop the breeder reactor. Further prolifera- 

 tion of weapons-making ability, as well as attempts to halt such 

 proliferation, will place great strains upon American diplomats and 

 their diplomacy. Another complication is the congressional quest for a 

 greater influence in the negotiation of international agreements for 

 cooperation. 



American experience suggests that international cooperation in 

 energy production and similar high-technology enterprises should give 

 less attention to technologies approaching commercial application and 

 emphasize longer-term ventures in their early stages — as nuclear 

 energy was until recently and as solar energy, fusion, or ocean heat 

 research are now. 



The author also states that he would now give much more attention 

 to the impact of nuclear safeguards upon diplomacy, in anticipation 

 of commercial use of the breeder reactor. The long-term future of 

 nuclear power may depend upon success of the breeder reactor. If the 

 breeder succeeds, it will greatly increase the amount of energy re- 

 coverable from world uranium and thorium resources. But it will also 

 introduce great quantities of plutonium and uranium-233 into inter- 

 national commerce; the control of which will pose many new problems 

 for diplomacy. Indeed, some analysts view these problems as so un- 

 solvable that they favor barring use of the breeder both in the United 

 States and elsewhere. 



Legislative Implications 



The study identified a number of issues for congressional considera- 

 tion, most of which have legislative implications. Slightly updated, 

 these include: 



