1873 



The planning process must go further. It must maintain a continuing 

 review of the information inputs because they are always in the process 

 of change. But also, the planners can help to prepare the issue for 

 decision at "high policymaking levels" by a preliminary decision 

 process involving the followdng seven steps: 



1. Selection of a salient issue for analysis on the basis of general criteria of 

 importance and probable future urgency; 



2. Integration of the parts of the information available bearing on the issue 

 and the search for further relevant information ; 



3. Analysis of the information to identify the decisive elements ; 



4. Formulation of alternative possible courses of action; 



5. The ordering of the information in relation to the alternatives ; 



6. Evaluation and comparison of alternatives as to probable costs and benefits, 

 technical feasibility, and political acceptability; and 



7. Selection of one or more preferred alternatives for further analysis and presen- 

 tation to the ultimate decisionmaker. 5^° 



To perform this long-range planning function, the study suggests, 

 requires a staff capability close to the Secretary of State or the White 

 House, or both, with the following characteristics : 



1. Knowledge about technological trends to obtain -early knowledge of what is 

 likely to be technically feasible and also diplomatically important. 



2. Enough technical sophistication to identify aspects of an ongoing develop- 

 ment (i.e., the diplomatic counterpart of "technology assessment") to determine 

 what might be done to enhance beneficial diplomatic consequences or minimize 

 adverse diplomatic consequences. 



3. An early understanding of specific items of new technology (wherever 

 developed) that has a probability of perturbing the international balance of power, 

 destabihzing local societies, or introducing significant economic developments. 



4. An appreciation of the possibilities of beneficially reacting to foreseen 

 technological developments by diplomatic means."^ 



The history of the Policy Planning Staff in the Department of 

 Defense has shown a number of persistent or recurrent weaknesses. 

 When it was first created, in 1947, it was given five functions: 



1. Formulating and developing, for the consideration and approval of appro- 

 priate officials of the department, long-term programs for the achievement of 

 U.S. foreign policy objectives. 



2. Anticipating problems which the department may encounter in the discharge 

 of its missions. 



3. Undertaking studies and preparing reports on broad political-military 

 problems. 



4. Examining problems and developments affecting U.S. foreign policy in 

 order to evaluate the adequacy of current policy and making advisory recom- 

 mendations on them. 



5. Coordinating planning activities withn the Department of State.^' 



The essence of these functions was long-range. But as time went on the 

 efforts of the staff became more diffused and more addressed to current 

 problems. The very competence of the staff made it an attractive unit 

 to help the Secretary with major speeches, to help draft current policy 

 statements, and to contribute to the "NSC paper mill." One difficulty 

 was the sheer scope and rate of change of the subject matter: it was 

 difficult to look very far ahead with any useful degree of precision. 

 Difficulties were encountered in formulating goals and assumptions of 

 foreign pohcy. During some periods, the staff dropped out of touch 



S!0 Ibid., p. 1415. 

 571 Ihid., p. 1416. 

 iT2 Ibid., p. 1418. 



