1857 



— The growing technological interdependence among nations 

 spurred by such developments as the rapidly spreading multi- 

 national corporations and the growing need for global allocations 

 of nonrenewable resources ; 



— The serious shortage of capital required for maintenance of 

 the U.S. industrial plant, as well as for investment in innovation; 

 — The increasing vulnerabilit}^ of U.S. industry, transport, 

 communications, and other large services systems, to all kinds 

 of disruptions as technology becomes more complex and units 

 grow in size to exploit economies of scale ; 



— The serious threat of nuclear proliferation in the absence of 

 adequate safeguards for nuclear fuel elements and fuel reproc- 

 essing facilities ; and 



— The value of the highly developed U.S. agricultural tech- 

 nology with its great political leverage in the developing and 

 developed world. 

 One lesson of Sputnik was that feats of technology serve the pur- 

 poses of diplomacy and national prestige. The same lesson could have 

 been drawn from the Berlin airlift. If the increasing of this world 

 prestige serves the purposes of the national security, what new 

 initiatives should be in the planning stage to this end? 



National Security Planning in a Broader Context 



The pervasive influence of technology transforms most issues of 

 global polic}' for national security. It calls for a new conceptual frame 

 of reference and the adjustment of public institutions to chart new 

 courses. Foreseeable technological concepts must be assessed as to 

 the changes they are likely to bring in the political, social, economic, 

 and military environment. Planning is needed on a longer time scale 

 to shape policy, devise strategy, and make technological allocations. 

 Already-available technologies with global impact that warrant 

 assessment of their implications for the national security include : 



— Cheap synthetic substitutes for cash crops; 



— Chemicals and drugs with global social and environmental 

 impacts; 



— Massive and rapid air transportation; 



— Instant communications and visual reports at great distances; 



— Unlimited recording and rapid manipulation of data; 



— Photographic surveys of the total area of the Earth; 



— Manmade nuclear energy; and 



— Global weather prediction. 

 Emerging issues with a substantial technological content that need 

 to be analyzed to assist U.S. decisionmakers in the formulation of 

 national security policy include : 



— Strategy of technological exports to U.S.S.R.; 



— Consequences of raismg the level of mihtary technology in 

 the Middle East; 



— Western Hemisphere stability and technology; 



— Resource dependence; 



— Weaponry and diminishing national security; 



— Urban instability and technology; 



— Wars of "national Uberation" and nationahsm; and 



—General predictable shifts in the distribution of power, or the 

 ability to coerce or dissuade with relatively little power. 



