1867 



This is, of course, only one of a variety of planning approaches 

 that might be explored. However, the main point of this essay and an 

 important conclusion of the study is that a great many decision points 

 and diplomatic forums are currently involved in attempting to fit a 

 new situation created by technology into an unaccommodating, 

 traditional framework. It is somewhat analogous to trying to preserve 

 the "three-mile limit" of seaward national sovereignty, originally 

 fixed as beyond the ultimate reach of cannon shot, while aircraft, 

 missiles, and satellites circle overhead. Planning for future changes 

 in diplomacy cannot ignore the consequences of technology when 

 these consequences effectively repeal the "law of nations." 



CASE six: U.S.-SOVIET COMMERCIAL RELATIONS 



The point of this study is that the efforts to increase the tech- 

 nological and economic relations between the two countries through 

 expanded bilateral trade was — at least potentially — more important 

 politically than economically. The effect of the developing U.S.- 

 U.S.S.R. detente seems to be a gradual move to include the Soviet 

 Union in the world economic and financial systems. A particular ad- 

 vantage of this move for the United States is that it could facilitate an 

 internal Soviet trend toward satisfying consumers while reducing al- 

 locations of resources for military purposes. The presumption is that 

 any Soviet move in this direction would be welcomed by the United 

 States by a response in kind, thus leading to significant slackening 

 in an arms race that has persisted for a quarter century. 



The evident advantages of this development for both superpowers, 

 in terms of both national security and human welfare, suggests that 

 close attention be given to ways of buttressing and elaborating the 

 arrangement. It would seem that there is no more potentially reward- 

 ing subject for attention in the long-range future. Planning in the 

 short-term, to exploit momentary advantages (or disadvantages of the 

 "adversary") hke the Soviet short grain harvest of 1975, may be 

 tempting. Diplomacy in both countries has tended to pursue the 

 short-term course. But it is suggested that attention should be ad- 

 dressed instead to the longer-range consequences of the relationship 

 in order to build a durable diplomatic structure beneficial to both the 

 principal participants and to the world at large. The interests of the 

 People's Republic of China, needless to say, must not be neglected 

 in this context. 



Lessons From the Six Issues in the Study for Short- and Long-Eange 

 Planning 



All six issues studied reveal neglected opportunities for major diplo- 

 matic initiatives, and most of them also show evidence of unsatis- 

 factory data collection, pohcy coordination, and policy analysis. 

 Short-range planning is narrow in scope and impact; long-range plan- 

 ning appears to be negligible to nonexistent. 



ISSUE one: the evolution of INTERNATIONAL TECHNOLOGY 



This study finds technology to be "the most obvious avenue to 

 national strength and international influence." It observes: 



The emerging question posed by the onrush of technology, and its effect on 

 the relations among the countries of the world, is whether this potent factor of 



