1918 



Kahn, Herman. A Slightly Optimistic World Context for 1975-2000. Croton-on- 

 HudsoH; N. Y., Hudson Institute, 1974. 13 1. (Hudson Institute. Research 

 memorandum no. 8). At head of title: Corporate environment program. 



Expects "economic growth to continue to increase well into the twenty- 

 first century," and expects that "by the year 2000 most of the world's 

 population will be very well off by today's standards." 

 Kahn, Herman. Ten Alternative Global Projections for 1975-SOOO. Croton-on- 

 Hudson, N.Y., Hudson Institute, 1974. 12 1. 



Presents ten projections of what might happen in the world (1975-2000) 

 six are described as "surprise-free projections" and the others are Msted as 

 "unlikely worlds". 

 Kahn, Herman and William Brown. A World Turning Point — and a Better 

 Prospect for the Future. Croton-on-Hudson, N. Y., Hudson Institute, 1975. 

 21 1. (Hudson Institute. Research memorandum no. 13). At head of title: 

 Corporate environment program. 



"We are now or probably soon will be passing through an inflection point 

 for world growth rates of both population and production. In other words, 

 these rates are now at historic high points, after which they will gradually 

 decline and level off, producing a generally affluent world about a century 

 hence." 

 King, Alexander. Science and Policy: the International Stimulus. London, Oxford 

 University Press, 1974. 110 p. 



The author is former director-general for scientific affairs of the OECD. 

 He notes "Science and technology have been important ingredients in the 

 building of the kind of world we enjoy and suffer today. Research activity has 

 expanded greatly in the last few decades in all industrialized countries and 

 now amounts to a sizeable proportion of the gross national product. Funds^ 

 for research and development come mainly from governments, although 

 industrial contributions are great. These circumstances, in which the promise 

 offered by new discovery is greater than the resources available, have 

 necessitated the creation of national policies and priorities. Furthermore, 

 increasing scale and cost have encouraged the sharing of research inter- 

 nationally. This book sketches the evolution of such policies on an inter- 

 national basis, outlines the main issues, and gives some indication of future 

 trends, particularly in relation to the need to use the scientific approach to 

 solve not only material and economic problems but also those of society." 

 Kintner, William R. and Harvev Sicherman. Technology and International Politics: 

 The Crisis of Wishing. Lexington, Mass., D. C. Heath and Co., 1975. 175 p. 

 (Institute Book Series of the Foreign Policy Research Institute, Philadelphia.) 

 The authors attempt to describe the impact of technology on four aspects 

 of international politics: war and peace, political integration, modernization, 

 and resources. The book argues basically that the most important aspects 

 of modem technology, research and development, generate uncertainty in 

 nation-states. This is an ambiguous impact. Although it may weaken the 

 power of a state, in the end it will strengthen a nation's sovereignty. This 

 book therefore stands in contrast to those studies which hypothesize that 

 technology will automatically lead to interdependence of nations. 

 Meadows, Dennis and DoneUa H. Meadows., eds. Toward Global Equilibrium; 

 Collected Papers. Cambridge, Wright-Allen Press, 1973. 358 p. 



"Technical papers by The Limits to Growth team dealing with raw materials, 

 pollution, population, methodology and ethics." 

 Mesarovic, Mihajlo and Edward Pestei. Mankind at the Turning Point: the Second 

 Report to the Club of Rome. New York, Dutton/Reader's Digest Press, 1974. 

 210 p. 



"The quest for an alternative to the deadly endings traced in Limits to 

 Growth has produced a more sophisticated computer model. While stressing 

 global interdependence, this one deals separately with regions and permits the 

 testing of a variety of assumptions. The results reported here still point 

 to danger, but make a case for "differentiated growth," international coop- 

 eration, and coordinated action across a wide front." (1) 

 Morgenstern, Oskar, Klaus Knorr, and Klaus P. Heiss. Long-Term Projections 

 of Power: Political, Economic, and Military Forecasting. Cambridge, Ballinger, 

 1973. 229 p. 



"This trenchant discussion of forecasting recommends skepticism and a 

 mixed approach. Energy, which the authors regard as particularly important 

 in judging power, and China, which they find the hardest country to make 

 projections about, receive special attention. Familiar faces such as the Club 

 of Rome and Herman Kahn are inspected rather quizzically." (1) 



