I.— MISCELLANEOUS— cow^mwecZ. 



Art. XLVIII. — Ofi certain Statistics respecting the Trend 



of Ejiglish Trade. 



By H. W. Segar, M.A., Professor of Mathematics, 

 University College, Auckland. 

 {Read before the Auckland Institute, 6th July, 1903.] 

 There have been many statistics put forward of late as 

 showing the smallness of the increase in British exports 

 during some years past as compared with the increases of the 

 exports of some other nations. That the absolute increase of 

 the exports of the United Kingdom has been smaller than the 

 increases of the exports of the United States of America and 

 of those of Germany is undeniable, as is also the fact that the 

 percentage of increase has been smaller than the correspond- 

 ing percentages in the case of many other nations. But, still, 

 many of the figures put forward, and given the most prominent 

 place and attention as being apparently the most glaring and 

 sensational, are very misleading, and give an extremely ex- 

 aggerated view of the situation. In the course of this paper 

 we shall examine a few typical illustrations — those, indeed, 

 which on the surface give the most despondent view of 

 English commerce of any I have come across. We shall see 

 that the usual interpretation of them is wholly unwarranted, 

 and that the attempt to make them a foundation of an 

 attack on the free-trade policy of England can only be sus- 

 tained by ignoring facts and circumstances that must be taken 

 into account if any reasonable use is to be made of the figures. 

 This is our main object. It is not proposed here to enter 

 into anything approaching a complete discussion of British 

 trade statistics, or to consider the general arguments for or 

 against the continuation of the present fiscal policy of the 

 United Kingdom. 



Now, at least three main principles must be kept in mmd 

 if even only approximately fair conclusions are to be drawn 

 from many of the tables of figures one comes across bearing 

 on this question. 



Firstly, we must take account of the fact that until re- 

 cently general prices have been falling ever since about the 

 year 1870. The question has been discussed by the author in 



