Segar. — Statistics respecting Trend of English Trade. 495 



Much has been made of the facts that the apparent increase 

 of the value of the exports for the United States is nearly 

 seven times, and those of Germany about two and a half times, 

 as great as for the United Kingdom. But this is true only of 

 the nominal values, which, as we have seen, do not give a fair 

 representation of the real changes. Considering the exchange- 

 values, we see that the increases are much more nearly equal. 

 The increase for the United States is just about two-thirds 

 greater than, that for Germany is actually a little less than, 

 and that for France is not two- thirds of the increase for the 

 United Kingdom. There is therefore nothing alarming to be 

 derived from these figures as thus corrected. The method, of 

 course, as any method must necessarily be dealing with this 

 particular subject, is comparatively rough, but the results 

 obtamed give a far better representation of the true state of 

 things than the nommal values nakedly presented. 



The above change is brought about by the making of the 

 •correction for the apparent falling-off in exports which is due 

 merely to the change in the value of money, and, the United 

 Kingdom having the largest exports, the correction is the 

 greatest in the case of that country. 



Secondly, we should take account of the fact that the popu- 

 lations of the several countries increase at various rates, and 

 this must affect their commerce; and, further, any prosperity 

 the commerce of a country may indicate can only be properly 

 judged by considering it relatively to the population. The 

 population of Germany, owing to a higher difference of birth- 

 rate and death-rate combined with a smaller percentage of 

 emigration, increases more rapidly than that of England, 

 both absolutely and relatively ; and the population of the 

 United States of America, owing to the great amount of 

 immigration, increases in both respects even more quickly. 

 Now, comparing the exchange-values of the exports and their 

 increases in the two periods in Table I., we see that relatively 

 to the increases in population in the several countries England 

 shows up better than both Germany and the United States; 

 but it is France that really surprises us with her large increase 

 and almost stationary population. 



On account of changes in population it is much better, 

 in comparing the commerce of nations as affecting the 

 prosperity of their peoples, to take the trade per head ; the 

 element of population is thus eliminated. Table II. gives the 

 special exports per head of the countries we have been con- 

 sidering for the quinquennial periods from 1875 to 1889. 

 This can only be fairly used in comparing one country with 

 another in the same period, and not in comparing period with 

 period, because of the differences in the value of money. 



