498 Transactions. — Miscellaneous. 



«ion — first the United Kingdom, then France, the United 

 ■States, and Germany in succession, and then the United 

 Kingdom again. We cannot expect the course of trade to 

 run smoothly; it is of necessity liable to fluctuations. Hence 

 follows the advisability of considering the course of trade 

 grouped in periods of years, so as to minimise the effect of the 

 more temporary fluctuations. But even then we shall have 

 fluctuations, and it no more follows from the above statistics 

 that the condition of English exports in the last period is the 

 beginning of a permanent change than it did in the case of 

 the first or in any of the other periods in the case of the 

 nation whose exports per head were relatively depressed in 

 that period. It is impossible to draw from these figures any 

 conclusion that would condemn the free-trade policy of Eng- 

 land. The mere inconsistency of any such inference would 

 be conspicuous, for, if the greater advance of the exports per 

 head of the other countries relatively to those of the United 

 Kingdom during 1890 is to be put down to British free trade, 

 to what must we give credit for the very different condition 

 of things existing from 1875 to 1889, when free trade had 

 already been in existence for over a generation ? 



It would be well to point out, perhaps, that the relative 

 recent advances of the foreign countries we have been con- 

 sidering in respect to the exports per head are in no wise 

 inconsistent with the statement above that, comparing the 

 exchange-values of the exports and their increases in the 

 two periods in Table I. relatively to the increases in popula- 

 tion in the several countries, England shows up better than 

 both Germany and the United States. For, though these in- 

 creases are smaller in the case of Germany and tlie United 

 States relatively to the increases of population, they represent 

 a higher value per head of the additional population than do 

 the whole exports of the whole population, and so increase 

 this latter value. 



Thirdly, we should take into account the changes in the 

 economic circumstances of a nation. How different the com- 

 merce can be relatively to population and resources, and con- 

 sistently with the existence of the highest prosperity, is 

 illustrated by contrasting the foreign trade of the United 

 States, which is about £5 per head, with that of New Zealand, 

 which is well over £30 per head. This is partly accounted for 

 by the higlier protective policy of the United States, but 

 chiefly by other economic considerations. Changes in the 

 economic conditions of a nation may, then, possibly tend to 

 increase or diminisli her commerce without affecting her pro- 

 sperity. All these conditions must be taken into account 

 before any change in the volume of commerce can be attri- 

 buted to any particular influence. The subject is a large one. 



