ENVIRONMENTAL PLANNING FOR OFFSHORE OIL AND GAS 



PREFACE 



This report is intended to provide the link from primary OCS develop- 

 ment to the secondary growth effects it induces and the ecological impacts 

 that may accompany such growth. If used in conjunction with other volumes 

 in this series, the content of the report should enable the reader to 

 examine the full range of impacts on fish and wildlife resources that 

 might be associated with OCS development. 



The primary aim of this report is the illustration of procedures used 

 in forecasting community development that accompanies major industrial 

 development, such as OCS development. Forecasting growth is an inexact 

 science at best and no claims are made for its validity nor ability to 

 accurately predict impacts. Whils uninitiated readers will not be 

 prepared to conduct forecasting after reviewing this report, they should 

 understand which factors are important in predicting community demand, and 

 how these factors interact with each other. The text is designed to 

 emphasize the close relationships between OCS industrial development and 

 community development, on the one hand, and community development and 

 resource conservation, on the other. In this way, the report attempts 

 to close the gap of understanding of the total ecological consequences of 

 OCS industrial development. 



The report is presented in four sections that introduce the reader, 

 step by step, to the forecasting process and its connection to impacts on 

 habitat and living resources. The process is presented in simplified 

 format so that the key components stand out distinctly. Examples from 

 published OCS-related studies are included to illustrate the type of 

 discussion and language that the reader will confront in review and 

 evaluation of growth forecasts. An extended list of references has been 

 included for readers who wish to pursue aspects of this topic in greater 

 detail . 



Jeffrey Zinn 

 Senior Associate 



