An understanding of secondary development and its effects can help in 

 evaluating the estimates in environmental statements and planning documents 

 related to lease sales or proposed major OCS facilities. Such an under- 

 standing can also be of help in the review of permit applications. 

 Applicants often seek permission for actions that appear to be minor (in 

 comparison to a refinery, for example), and for which they provide only 

 simple documentation. Yet "minor" actions may be elements of larger 

 projects that can bring significant secondary development. In commenting 

 on a dredge and fill permit application, for example, it is essential to 

 take note of the potential for secondary development of the project and to 

 predict its effects. Failure to do so can result in resource and habitat 

 damage that could have been avoided. 



1.2 THE FORECASTING PROCESS 



How much secondary development will a particular OCS-related facility 

 stimulate? What kinds of development? Where? Finding answers to these 

 and other questions in a specific case requires a forecast methodology that 

 goes through a sequence of analyses and estimates. Some steps in that 

 sequence involve non-quantitative analysis of the specific facility and and 

 its proposed location. Others involve the application of a factor ("ratio" 

 or "multiplier") derived from experience with growth responses in a locality, 

 a region, or perhaps for the whole nation. 



The estimating process is subject to a number of limitations that 

 should be kept in mind; three are especially important. First, forecasts 

 of the kind and amount of secondary development and its effects rarely can 

 be precise. This is particularly true for major projects, such as 

 refineries or for lease sales, which may affect large areas. Uncertainties 

 usually are unavoidable, so rough approximations are the rule, not the 

 exception. The approximations in one case may prove to be fairly 

 accurate; others may prove to be way off base. Nonetheless, approximations 

 seem the best available way to forecast the consequences of major 

 facilities, including effects on living resources. 



Second, the processes used to forecast secondary development are 

 limited by their selected regional boundary . Whichever process is chosen, 

 it will be confined to a defined study region. The size and shape of the 

 chosen region can enormously influence the resulting apparent effects of 

 the proposed OCS activity. As one study put it [1]: 



The choice of 'region' is crucial to the measurement 

 of impact. What may be dramatic change in economic 

 activity for a small town may be trivial for a state 

 and infinitesimal for a nation. 



The regions chosen for forecasting potential impacts of OCS lease 

 sales are typically large, because OCS oil and gas recovery operations can 

 affect a large area, and the forecasting process must consider the full 



