EXAMPLE 1. Assumptions Underlying an OCS-Development 

 Scenario (Source: Reference 3) 



Decisions for Delaware applied the following assumptions in predicting 

 onshore impacts: 



1. Two lease sales will be held roughly two years apart; one late in 

 1975 and one in mid-1977. 



2. In each sale, 4,000,000 acres will be offered and 2,000,000 will 

 actually be leased. 



3. Each sale will result in production of 500,000 barrels a day; a 

 total of 1,000,000 barrels per day from the entire Mid-Atlantic 

 region. 



4. Because the Baltimore Trough is a group of relatively simple 

 structures, it is estimated that only 150 exploratory wells will 

 be required to verify the production from each lease sale. 



5. It is estimated that one platform will be required for every four 

 lease blocks and that an average of 36 wells will be drilled per 

 platform. Each will produce 1,000 barrels per day. 



6. It is estimated that from 45 to 60 days will be required to drill 

 a well to reach the hydrocarbon- bearing geologic structures. 



7. The fundamental unit for estimating population and economic impact 

 is the number of drill rigs and from that the size of the mining 

 labor force. An average of 60 men per rig is assumed. To determine 

 the size of directly and indirectly associated labor force, two 

 multipliers are added to mining manpower. A third multiplier is 

 then used to convert the sizeable labor force to a total popula- 

 tion... as will be seen in calculation details the multipliers 

 applied to the mining manpower in this study are 2.0 to determine 

 the directly associated labor force; 3.0 to determine the indirectly 

 associated labor force; and 4.0 to arrive at an estimated total 

 population. 



In addition to these seven basic assumptions, other detailed assump- 

 tions indicate that 150 exploratory wells will be drilled in a 

 7-year period and approximately 42 production platforms will be 

 required to develop the entire Baltimore Trough. Development plans 

 also include the estimated number of active rigs, crew boats, work 

 boats, and helicopters required each year between 1976 and 1986, 

 details about logistics of port capabilities, and other needs. 



