2. Families . The next step is to estimate how many of the new 

 resident employees will bring families, as distinguished from those 

 who are single or are not living with their families. A multiplier 

 is then used to estimate the number of people in the new resident 

 families (see Section 2.3.6). 



3. An estimate of total population added is then obtained by combining 

 (1) the estimated number of new resident employees without 

 families, and (2) the estimated total population of new resident 

 families (see Section 2.3.7). 



The next step in the process is to estimate the demands of the total 

 added population for public and private facilities such as homes, businesses, 

 schools, and recreation facilities (Section 3). All facilities in this 

 group are termed projects . 



The final step is consideration of environmental alterations that might 

 result from initiating the forecasted public and private facilities (see 

 Section 4). For convenience of analysis, discussion of this work is 

 divided into the subprojects involved, such as bulkhead construction. The 

 subprojects are carried out through activities which can cause environmental 

 disturbances, which may in turn have effects on fish and wildlife resources 

 and their habitats. Major types of subprojects and the potential 

 disturbances they may cause are reviewed further in this report. A more 

 detailed discussion is provided in Volume III of this series. 



2.3 WORKING THROUGH A SAMPLE FORECAST 



Forecasting impacts depends on accurate estimation of the numbers of 

 people employed and total population added. Many of the factors involved in 

 these elements are considered in greater detail in this section. Considera- 

 tion of the physical facilities to be required is taken up in a later 

 section. 



2.3.1 Direct Employment 



Direct employment is defined as [5]: 



...workers employed by oil companies and drilling 

 contractors who are immediately and totally involved 

 in OCS activities including operation of exploratory 

 and development rigs and production platforms, and 

 essential onshore functions such as manning process- 

 ing plants, generally coinciding with direct hire or 

 direct contract. Thus, direct employees include 

 offshore and some onshore employees. 



Direct employment is typically greatest during the field development 

 phase of offshore oil and gas recovery, because facilities construction 



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