and Moore's oil spill trajectory analysis there is a 99 percent chance 

 that oil spills originating within the proposed leasing area will impact 

 sea otter concentrations on the Kenai Peninsula, Barren Islands, and 

 Kachemak and Kamishak Bay areas. Further, potential marine support 

 facilities on the tip of the Kenai Peninsula and Cape Douglas will very 

 likely eliminate critical habitat and concentrations of sea otters 

 because of human disturbances and chronic oil pollution. 



But the greatest threat to wildlife from oil spills and human 

 disturbance will be to the 40 to 50 species of diving birds, colony 

 nesting birds, and water roosting birds in the area. Coastal bird 

 habitats that will be most threatened by oil pollution are Augustine 

 Island, Stevenson Entrance, the Barren Islands, and the area from Tuxedi 

 Bay to Iliamna Bay. Dames and Moore oil spill trajectory analysis shows 

 that there is a 100 percent chance that oil spills originating within 

 the proposed lease sale area will impact marine bird nesting, resting or 

 foraging areas. Birdlife will be most vulnerable to oil spills during 

 the summer nesting season and during spring and fall migration periods. 



Oil spills will also negatively affect coastal fisheries and their 



associated marine ecosystems. Acute and chronic spillage of oil would 



decrease local finfish populations and salmon and herring spawning 



areas. Also shallow subtidal filter feeding invertebrates such as clams 



will be affected by petroleum hydrocarbons. The most vulnerable clam 



populations, primarily razor clams, exist in the Clam Gulch and Polly 



Creek areas. There is also a strong possibility that commercially 



valuable populations of king, snow and dungeness crab will be reduced by 



activities associated with OCS development. Egg and larval forms will 



be the most susceptible to oil pollution. 



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