to the northern Gulf statements. Although state reviewers pointed out 

 gaps and contradictions in the analysis, they generally concurred with 

 the employment and population projections given BLM's assumptions about 

 petroleum production. 



As with the northern Gulf EIS, BLM assumed high petroleum finds for 

 purposes of their impact analysis. The Bureau estimated that the sale 

 area would produce 2.6 billion barrels of oil and 3.3 trillion cubic 

 feet of natural gas. They assumed peak production volumes for oil at 

 930,000 barrels/day and 465 million cubic feet/day for gas. Oil production 

 will peak in 1984, natural gas production will peak from 1986 to 2000. 5 

 According to USGS there is only a 5 percent probability of recover- 

 ing this much petroleum. 



Additional estimates of the rate and type of development are also 

 made by BLM and these are shown in Tables 5 and 6. Assumptions for the 

 for the lower Cook Inlet are: 



(1) At peak production, 23 platforms would be required, 21 oil 

 platforms and 2 gas platforms. 



(2) There would be 84 exploratory wells, 80 service wells, and 440 

 production wells drilled. 



(3) There would be pipelines totalling 300 miles in length, of 

 which 100 miles would be constructed onshore and 200 miles 

 would be submarine. 



(4) No petroleum refineries or platforms would be constructed in 

 Alaska as a result of the sale. 



(5) Natural gas would be marketed and there would be one liquified 

 natural gas (LNG) plant constructed around 1984. 



33 



