532 Transactions. 



Any fresh accession to the manufacturing ranks would involve 

 the defeat of the existing predominantly manufacturing nations, 

 and possibly the reduction of their populations. Certainly, 

 too, the process will not be facilitated by tariffs if they continue 

 to that time, for in economic war, as in any other war, victory 

 is apt to lie with the biggest battalions. If New Zealand has to 

 depend for her economic transformation on struggles with the great 

 industrial States of the future the issue can scarcely be in doubt. 

 The question we have been considering is an important 

 one, for on the answer depends some other points of interest. 

 If New Zealand can never escape from the position of a pre- 

 dominantly pastoral and agricultural nation, the rosy estimates 

 we sometimes hear of her great future population are foredoomed 

 to non-fulfilment, and her rapid development will cease at a 

 much earlier period than is commonly anticipated. It is quite 

 certain that New Zealand cannot maintain in anything like 

 the present standard of comfort five million people exporting 

 the same proportional amount of food and raw materials as at 

 present. It seems quite certain that her transformation, if it 

 ever eventuates, will be slow and painful. The rapid develop- 

 ment from the agricultural to the manufacturing state that we 

 have witnessed in Germany cannot be emulated by this country. 

 What small chance there may be would consist in leading in the 

 race for a rapid increase of population. This is not encouraged 

 by the present policy. The industry best suited to the present 

 time and conditions in this country is the development of the 

 land. Growth of population would be more encouraged by the 

 removal of the artificial expenses inflicted on the farmer. This 

 would make farming more profitable, and this would tend 

 both to widen the area of cultivation and to promote a more 

 intensive culture, and so lead more rapidly to the state in 

 winch the country would be economically ripe for manufactures. 

 Again, from another point of view, the answer to our question 

 must influence our judgment of the wisdom of a restrictive 

 policy designed to encourage manufactures. Not only is the 

 population of the country too small, both absolutely and 

 relatively to its land, to be ripe for such as a general policy, 

 but if New Zealand is never to attain the position of a manu- 

 facturing nation, one great incentive to protective measures 

 does not exist. Many admit, that are not generally adverse 

 to such a policy, that while an industry lives only on protection, 

 however profitable it may he to the capitalists who engage in 

 it. the result is a present loss to the country as a whole. By 

 such persons the policy is recommended by arguments such as 

 commend a policy of education in the case of an individual. A 

 present loss or sacrifice is submitted to for the sake of a future 



