Segae. — The Population of New Zealand. 461 



Table VIII.— Excess op Births over Deaths in New Zealand. 



We have considered reasons for thinking that, though the 

 annual number of births may increase, it is probable the 

 increase will not be great ; on the other hand, the annual 

 number of deaths is bound to increase pretty constantly and 

 considerably. Consequently, it is more than probable the 

 annual increase by excess of births over deaths will diminish 

 further. With the population increasing, although probably 

 by constantly less amounts, this will mean a continued fall in 

 the percentage of increase from births and deaths. This per- 

 centage is of importance, and is what we ought generally to 

 consider, rather than the absolute numbers. 



In 1899 the rate of increase reached as low as 1-48 per 

 cent. This is still a fair rate of annual increase, however, and 

 would double the population in forty-seven years ; but it is 

 due to our small death-rate, which itself is due to a tem- 

 porary condition of our population, and must certainly in- 

 crease considerably. Unless, then, there is a revival in the 

 births we must expect this rate of increase to dimmish very 

 much. 



The increase, however, has recently been taking place in 

 the ranks of the adults, the births simply being sufficient 

 only to replace those that have been passing from the stage 

 of childhood to that of manhood. As the adult population 

 forms just about half of the whole, it follows that the adult 

 population has been increasing at the rate of about 3 per cent. 

 per annum. Further, this increase has been chiefly in the 

 portion of the adult population at productive ages ; hence, 

 apart from the abnormal prosperity of recent years, the com- 

 merce of the colony and the returns of the Post Office and 

 other governmental departments should show an advance 

 greater than would be expected at first sight to follow from 

 the rate of increase of population as a whole. 



