Seqae. — The Population of Neiv Zealand. 



453 



continue for a period long enough to produce serious effects 

 in the direction indicated ? This is a question to which no 

 certain answer can be given ; yet there are considerations 

 worthy of attention in connection with this very important 

 matter. 



During the years 1881-96 the population of females at 

 the reproductive ages increased from 96,139 to 158.201, or by 

 64-5 per cent. It has still further increased during the last 

 four years ; but the number of children born last year only 

 just exceeded the number born in 1881, and was decidedly 

 less than the number born in 1880. Moreover, the past few 

 years have been years of exceptional prosperity, and the mar- 

 riage-rate has been higher than for very many years ; yet, 

 though there had been a small steady increase in the annual 

 number of births from 1892 to 1898, last year showed another 

 falling-off, and the number for the year was over a thousand 

 less than the record number of 1884. Thus, for some twenty 

 years, in good times and in bad, the growth of the practice of 

 rearing only small families has counteracted the tendency of 

 the growth of the population to produce an increased number 

 of births from year to year. This practice may have reached 

 its full development or it may not. This question the future 

 only can decide for us ; but, if the practice continues for 

 many years more to grow sufficiently to keep the annual 

 number of births constant, the reproductive ages will be in- 

 cluded in those having a stationary distribution, and will 

 cease to increase in numbers. Then, no increase in the 

 annual number of births can be expected except from a 

 diminution in the practice of restricting births ; and, unless 

 this change takes place, it will only be a matter of time for 

 the older ages to fill up in the same way, and for the whole 

 population to become stationary. 



Change of Age-distribution in New Zealand. 



Not only when we compare the age-distribution for dif- 

 ferent countries, but when we compare the age-distribution of 

 the population of the same country at different periods, we 

 sometimes find a very great variability. The following table 

 illustrates this for the case of New Zealand : — 



