452 Transactions. — Miscellaneous. 



than that for the last twenty-one years ; and during the whole 

 of these twenty-one years the numbers of births in the several 

 years did not vary from the average for the whole period 

 by more than 5 per cent, in either direction. Further, for 

 each of the six years 1882-87 the number of births exceeded 

 1,900; but this number has never since been attained, with 

 the consequence that, at the last census, the number of child- 

 ren in the colony of ages 5-10 was actually less than that 

 recorded at the previous census. 



Effects of a Constant Annual Number of Births. 



For some twenty years we have thus had a practically 

 constant annual number of births, and in consequence, and 

 by reason also of the growth of the population as a whole, a 

 rapidly diminishing birth-rate. This is a phenomenon of the 

 highest importance. If it continues it must bring about a 

 practically stationary state of the whole population in a com- 

 paratively short period. At the time of the census of 1896 it 

 had already brought about a practically stationary distribu- 

 tion of population of the ages 0-17, and at the present time 

 the distribution of ages 0-20 must be stationary. The con- 

 sequences have already begun to appear in the schools of the 

 colony, the attendances at which rose continuously until 1898, 

 but in that year the first falling-off in numbers was recorded. 

 In the North Island the number of children attending school 

 continues to increase, but this increase is counterbalanced by 

 the decrease in the South Island, where the falling-off in 

 school-attendance has led in many cases to the discharge of 

 teachers. 



So long as the annual number of births remains constant 

 this stationary portion of the population will continue to 

 spread ; five years later the distribution of ages 0-25 will be 

 stationary, and so on until the whole population is reduced to 

 this state. A greater and greater portion of the population 

 will fill up to the stationary level corresponding to the annual 

 number of births and will there remain. 



We have seen that an annual number of births equal to 

 20,000 will produce a population only of about 1,110,000, and 

 if the annual number of births were not to reach 20,000 the 

 total population could not even reach this number, except so 

 far as it is aided by immigration ; the annual increase would 

 become less and less, and the total population would approach 

 its limit more and more slowly, until at last the annual in- 

 crease would not be worth taking into account. 



Future Births in New Zealand. 

 What, then, are the chances that the state of things begun 

 twenty years ago and continued to the present time may yet 



