Segar. — The Population of Neiv Zealand. 



457 



living at the present time, there will be an increase during 

 the next eleven years of about 68'6 per cent, in the number of 

 old people. He would be a very sanguine man who, having 

 observed closely present tendencies, would expect an increase 

 in the whole population of more than 15 per cent, during the 

 same period. Thus it is a practical certainty that the ratio of 

 old people to the whole population will continue in the im- 

 mediate future to increase at much the same rate as it has 

 been doing during recent years. 



Now let us look ahead as far as we can without any 

 special hypothesis as to how many births will take place in 

 the future. In 1961, or sixty-one years hence, the people of 

 sixty-five years and over will be, in the main, survivors of 

 those that were of thirty-four years and under at the last 

 census. Supposing the absence, for the present, of disturb- 

 ing causes, the result of the application of the life-tables is 

 as given in the next table. Although calculated for each 

 year of age, the figures are given, for the sake of brevity, 

 for five-year periods only : — 



Table VII — Expected Number of Old People in New Zealand 



in 1961. 



Thus the total number of people of age sixty-five and over 

 may be expected by the year 1961 to reach a total of about 

 115,000. It maybe urged that what will exist sixty-one years 

 hence is of no moment at the present time ; but the result 

 shows that the forces at work will not produce their full effect 

 during the next few years only, and for many years to come 

 the number of old people will increase at a rate greatly in 

 excess of any likely rate of increase of the population as a 

 whole. 



This phenomenon is not peculiar to New Zealand ; it is 

 exhibited to a more or less equal degree by the Australasian 



