462 Transactions. — Miscellaneous. 



The increase in population through the excess of immi- 

 gration over emigration has at times readied great propor- 

 tions. During the years 1861-65, for instance, the total 

 reached 93,169, and during the years 1874-79 it reached 

 110,932. These were the great flood-times of immigration. 

 During recent years, however, the excess of immigration over 

 emigration has ceased to be of great importance ; indeed, 

 during the years 1888-91 there was a loss of 13,941 by excess 

 of emigration, and although in the following years — 1892-93 — 

 there was once more a gain of 15,370, this was, no doubt, 

 largely due to return of many who had left the colony in the 

 less prosperous years preceding. Since 1893 the largest ex- 

 cess of immigration has been 2,752 and the smallest 895, and 

 it would appear that it would be safe to estimate the likely 

 average excess of immigration in the immediate future as 

 not more than 2,000. This would only add a population of 

 100,000 in fifty years. But even this amount is not likely to 

 continue; since as the country fills up there will be less and 

 less to attract settlers, while the land has been always the 

 great attraction for immigrants. 



A stationary state must be reached ultimately by the 

 population of each country and by the population of the 

 world. If it is not brought about by a voluntary restriction 

 of births, bringing down the birth-rate to the level of the 

 death-rate, it must arise from the raising of the death-rate to 

 the level of the birth-rate by the increase of the severity of 

 the struggle for existence, and the consequent fallmg-off in 

 the standard of living. 



If brought about in the latter way the rates of mortality 

 will be high and the age-distribution very convergent, the 

 ratio of the number of old people to the whole population 

 being comparatively small ; but, if brought about by the 

 former means, the rates of mortality will be low and the 

 age-distribution not very convergent, the ratio of the num- 

 ber of old people to the whole population being compara- 

 tively great. And in proportion as the one cause or the 

 other operates will the resulting condition of the population 

 compare with the effects which that cause alone would pro- 

 duce. 



Hitherto, with the exception of modern France, when a 

 population has been more or less stationary the voluntary 

 restriction of births has rarely had any appreciable influence, 

 whereas there are now signs throughout the civilised world 

 of an extensive and still rapidly growing restriction of births ; 

 and nowhere, with the exception of France, has the practice 

 manifested itself more than in the Australian Colonies, and in 

 none of these colonies more than in our own New Zealand. 

 To discuss the ethics of the practice or the means of effecting 



