Segar. — The Population of New Zealand. 455 



of the number of people at the marrying-ages has recently 

 been so much more rapid than that of the people as a 

 whole. 



The other section of the people that has been increasing 

 with special rapidity is that consisting of those of fifty-five 

 years of age and over. This feature is of special importance, 

 and we shall discuss it in particular in the next section. 



The Increasing Proportion of Old People in New 



Zealand. 



A glance down the percentage column of Table V. will 

 reveal at once the extraordinary increase that took place 

 between the last two censuses in the number of old people 

 compared with the increase in the population as a whole. 

 This disproportionate increase has been taking place for a 

 very long time, for Table IV. shows that the percentage of 

 old people has grown steadily from 063 in 1861 to 2-95 in 

 1896. 



It is a matter not only of deep interest, but of national 

 importance, to inquire how rapid will be this increase, and 

 how far it will extend in the future. To calculate the per- 

 centage at any future period, however, involves knowing the 

 population at the time, and this involves some hypothesis as 

 to what the number of births will be in future years. We 

 shall, consequently, consider at present only the increase that 

 may be expected in the actual number of old people, leaving 

 the question of ratio to the whole population for consideration 

 later on. 



By means of life-tables we may predict, with all reason- 

 able accuracy, how many persons out of any sufficiently large 

 number at any given age will survive after any given number 

 of years. Persons 100 years of age and over we may neglect. 

 Let us, then, investigate what the number of old people in 

 New Zealand may be expected to be at the time of the 

 census of 1911. The persons that will be from sixty-five to 

 ninety-nine years of age eleven years hence will be the sur- 

 vivors of those that were from fifty to eighty-four years of 

 age at the last census (1896), neglecting, of course, the effect 

 of immigration and emigration, which, even if it were to take 

 place again on a fairly large scale, would but slightly affect 

 this particular question. 



The following table gives in the second column the num- 

 ber of persons alive at the census of 1896 at all ages from 

 fifty to eighty-four, and in the fourth column the number of 

 each of these that may be expected to survive in the year 

 1911 :— 



