Segar. — The Population of New Zealand. 459 



will be the survivors of the present population, but what 

 ratio this population of old people will bear to the whole 

 population depends on what the whole population will be. 

 If, for instance, the annual number of births were 20,000, 

 the total population would reach ultimately about 1,110,000, 

 while of these uo less than about 120,000, or 108 per cent., 

 would be old people of sixty-five years or over. This repre- 

 sents a limiting case, useful for comparison, however, for, as 

 the annual number of births tends towards a state of con- 

 stancy, so will the distribution of the population tend towards 

 the condition that would follow from a constant annual num- 

 ber of births. The general and continued fall of birth-rates 

 renders it probable that in the near future many popula- 

 tions, including that of New Zealand, that have been very 

 progressive hitherto will not differ greatly from this sta- 

 tionary state. 



It may seem utterly improbable at first that a popula- 

 tion can come into existence having such a large proportion 

 of old people as 10 - 8 per cent., or almost four times the pro- 

 portion there was in New Zealand at the time of the last 

 census. It should be borne in mind, however, that the state 

 of things which can produce this large proportion — namely, 

 an approximately constant annual number of births — has 

 hitherto only obtained in one country having reliable sta- 

 tistics. That country is France, and there already the pro- 

 portion of old people reaches 8T per cent., although even in 

 France the annual number of births has not been approxi- 

 mately constant for a length of time sufficient for the maxi- 

 mum effect to have been produced. Considering this actual 

 example, and the fact that life is longer in New Zealand on 

 the average than in France, the possibility I have pointed 

 out may continue to astonish, but there can be no room 

 left for incredulity. 



Effect on Death-rate. 



We have previously pointed out the dependence of the 

 death-rate upon the age-distribution of the people, as well as 

 upon the rates of mortality at the several ages. A great in- 

 crease in the proportion of old people, amongst whom the 

 death-rate is many times the general death-rate, must tend 

 to increase that general rate. But, on the other hand, a de- 

 crease in the proportion of children in the first tw r o years of 

 age tends to diminish the general death-rate, for the mortality 

 amongst young children is very great. Further, the increase 

 in the proportion of old people will not have a very great 

 influence in affecting the death-rate so long as that proportion 

 is still small. Consequently, we find that until comparatively 



