4.2 Demographic Changes 



OCS development may result in an influx of population into New 

 England for two reasons, the movement of skilled workers and their 

 families into the area and the migration of the unemployed into the 

 area to find jobs. The latter group may include individuals who do 

 not have skills vital to offshore development, but who hope to benefit 

 in some way from the overall economic activity. The regional studies 

 examined indicate that immigration would occur for up to 25 years 

 after the first lease sale, followed by emigration thereafter. It 

 is possible, however, that in areas with high unemployment a large 

 percentage of the labor force would be supplied locally. 



Table 8 summarizes the possible population immigration into 

 Bristol County, Mass. The estimated immigration for each 1,000 bar- 

 rels of daily production ranges from a low of 19 persons to a high of 

 60 in 1985. Among the reasons for the variation are the way in which 

 employment levels were calculated, the average family size assumed, 

 assumptions about future population levels not related to OCS activity, 

 and the proportion of employees that do not bring families into the area. 

 The draft EIS for OCS sale #42 indicates that many of the workers would 

 be highly skilled, young, mobile, and unmarried. The impact of these 

 migrations on municipal services will depend on the validity of all these 

 and other assumptions. 



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