257 



in excess of current requirements. AEC's operating plans call for 

 continuing "pre-production" of enriched uranium for nuclear fuel, 

 with the present pre-production inventory large enough to satisfy 

 nuclear power needs for about the next two years. As domestic and 

 foreign demands increase, the AEC plans to return the existing three- 

 plant complex to full output by 1978. Parenthetically, this will require 

 the AEC to find an electrical power supply of about 3,400 megawatts, 

 equivalent to about three large new power plants, at a time when 

 construction of such plants has been delayed. 



Concerning expansion of the present plant capacity, planned im- 

 provements would substantially increase the output of enriched 

 uranium for the same electrical input at an estimated capital cost of 

 $500 to $600 million. If, in addition, the electrical power supply for 

 the three plants can be increased by about one-sixth, from 6,100 mega* 

 watts to 7,400 megawatts (an increase equivalent to the output of a 

 large, modern electrical generating plant), and an additional invest- 

 ment of $200-$300 million be made, the United States enrichment 

 capacity could be sufficiently increased to meet AEC estimates for 

 foreign and domestic requirements for the 1970's. 



Looking into the early 1980's and beyond, and assuming present 

 forecasts are valid, one can estimate that the needs for enrichment 

 will exceed the capability of the present U.S. complex, even after 

 modification and increased power supply. New production plants will 

 be needed, together with electric power plants if the United States is 

 to hold its dominant position as a world supplier of enriched uranium. 



The AEC estimates that the latest date for a firm decision to build 

 new production capacity is 1975. If the present output is not expanded, 

 then a decision will have to be made no later than 1973 to build new 

 production capacity. Beyond these dates, assuming present demand 

 estimates are correct, without additional capacity this country will 

 be unable to meet combined domestic and foreign demands for en- 

 riched uranium. 304 



THE PROSPECTS FOR EXPANDING U.S. ENRICHMENT CAPACITY 



While the AEC was optimistic at the last Geneva conference on 

 atomic energy that it would obtain funds to increase the productivity 

 of its existing enrichment plants, some members of the Joint Com- 

 mittee on Atomic Energy were less optimistic. In opening a hearing 

 in March 1971 on uranium enrichment programs, Congressman Chet 

 Holifield said the Joint Committee agreed that the AEC should im- 

 prove its production plants, and that this should be done before other 

 U.S. alternatives were considered for enrichment supply such as 

 sharing U.S. technology with foreigners. But, he observed, the ad- 

 ministration over the three preceding years had not requested the 

 funds for these improvements and the Office of Management and 

 Budget was even withholding some $16 million aDproDriated for this 

 purpose. The Joint Committee was of the opinion that the United 



804 As this report was being completed, there were Indications In the trade press of the 

 nuclear industry that shortages of U.S. enrichment capacity would appear by 1985. How- 

 ever, there was disagreement as to how soon to begin work to avert this problem. The 

 Atomic Industrial Forum released a study in October 1972 in which an AIF committee saw 

 no way of avoiding a future shortfall in uranium separative work capacity unless plans for 

 the first major increment in new plant -capacity are Initiated before the end of 1972. On the 

 other hand, AEC spokesmen were Quoted as saying that a decision on Increased capacity 

 need not be made before 1976. Cf. Nucleonics Week, vol. 13 (October 19, 1972), p. 1. 



