IV. U.S. Interest in Expanded Economic Relations With the 



Soviet Union 



In assessing the new U.S. -Soviet commercial relationship, the pri- 

 mary task for U.S. policymakers is to determine its effect on the U.S. 

 economy and on U.S. foreign policy goals. The United States has an 

 obvious interest in importing valuable raw materials and selected 

 manufactured goods from the Soviet Union. But how will U.S. -Soviet 

 trade influence the U.S. economy as a whole? In view of the small 

 volume of trade, can U.S. consumers and producers expect significant 

 benefits? Administration officials have frequently cited improved U.S.- 

 Soviet diplomatic relations as a primary motivation for expanding 

 commercial relations. What diplomatic benefits will the United States 

 reap, in terms of specific U.S. foreign policy goals? 



Economic Benefits for the United states 



The economic advantages of Soviet-U.S. economic relations are 

 likely to be significant in particular sectors, rather than for the na- 

 tional economy as a whole. Grain traders and petroleum companies, 

 for example, may benefit, but the overall effect on the national econ- 

 omy will be modest. 



U.S. trade with the Soviet Union represented less than 1 percent 

 of total U.S. foreign trade in 1971. In 1072. trade turnover increased 

 substantially. However, if U.S.-Soviet trade should increase in eight 

 years to $3 billion — a remarkable attainment — it would still be only 

 about 2 percent of U.S. foreign trade. Currently, the United States 

 imports as much in a week from Canada as it imports in a year from 

 the Soviet Union. 84 As a result, a major relative change or increase 

 in trade with the Soviet Union could be offset by a relatively minor 

 change in U.S. trade relations with its major trading partners. More- 

 over, job creation, economic growth, and other economic benefits asso- 

 ciated with increased trade would be modestly affected by Soviet or 

 East -West trade. 



Furthermore, the U.S. trade and balance-of-payments deficits will 

 probably not be substantially reduced by increased Soviet trade. Al- 

 though "the United States is likely to have considerable surpluses in its 

 trade with the Soviet Union, they will be small in comparison with 

 overall U.S. deficits. 



Stability of U.S. Trade Gains 



Soviet foreign trade organizations have frequently been criticized 

 by Western businessmen as erratic and unreliable trade partners. In- 

 deed, several aspects of past Soviet practices support this notion: 



i Peterson (1971), op. cit., Appendix 1 1, pp. is. 23. 



(570) 



